A quick glance at potential Red Sox free agent pitching targets

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington has a lot to think about at this year's Winter Meetings

Everyone’s hopping on planes as we speak to head out to Dallas for MLB’s Winter Meetings where lots of wheeling and dealing is expected to take place. Last year, the Red Sox headed in losing Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez and walked out with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in tow. How will this year’s meetings play out? Who knows. But one thing is for sure, the Red Sox need to add some starting pitching to their rotation and it seems that newly-minted GM Ben Cherington will be looking to make a move. It could be a trade, but with some viable options available on the free agent market, Cherington might want to consider hanging on to his prospects and instead open up the check book if the price seems right. The following is a look at some of the names linked to the Red Sox and what they might represent to the team:

The best pitcher on the market: C.J. Wilson – He probably is, but at the money it’s going to take to get him, he’s clearly probably not worth the investment it’s going to take to land him – at least from where the Red Sox are standing. He makes a lot of sense in a place like Washington, where they’re trying to build a brand and prove to a fan base that they’re serious about adding big name talent if it helps them in the long-term, but for a team like Boston, it just doesn’t seem to make too much sense.

That and there’s some cause for concern. On the good side, he’s almost a full k/9 above the league average. But he’s also a full BB/9 higher than your league average. Not good. Then there’s the whole pitching in the AL East thing, which truth be told, I don’t tend to put too much stock in for most players. The issue though, is that $100 million investment isn’t a commitment you make to ‘just another player’ and regardless of Wilson’s skill level, with that kind of price tag attached, you need to get as much value as possible. The AL East has four hitter’s parks and some pretty tough lineups. That’s why this report from Baseball Prospectus should scare the crap out of you. That’s a ‘quality of opponents’ report. Of the 144 SP’s who qualified, Wilson ranked #144.

That makes you look at things you normally wouldn’t consider. I hate taking too much stock in playoff stats because they’re such a small sample to draw any reasonable conclusions off of, but with Wilson facing the Rays, Tigers and Cardinals and having poor results, it does make you pause and think more than it normally would. I think it’s a safe bet to assume that he likely regresses next year, even though I don’t think it’ll be a substantial one.

Now we need to be careful to point out here that C.J. Wilson is a really good pitcher. But I’d be worried here – especially considering the amount of money to be considered on such a limited track record. I think whomever gets him will – no doubt – have a high-quality starter. If the Red Sox only had one or two areas to address, I’d say they should take a good, hard look at him. But that’s simply not the case. There are two spots in the rotation open and there’s the question of what to do in the bullpen – especially the closer position. There’s also the question of adding a bat to the lineup and what will or won’t happen with David Ortiz. Right now, it just doesn’t seem like a worthwhile gamble. I’m being picky here, but I think you need to with nine-figure contracts.

The best fit that isn’t: Mark Buehrle – I love this guy, I just don’t know if I like him on this team. On the surface, Buehrle seems like a really good fit. He’s 33 and a few years away from regression it would seem, likely a safer bet than some of the older options on the market, and perhaps most appealing to dirtdog-loving Red Sox fans – he’s one heck of a personality. He’s a leader in the clubhouse, and outspoken critic of stupidity everywhere and has been a model of consistency throughout his career.

Buehrle is a command pitcher who relies on control to get hitters out. He’s extremely efficient and keeps a low pitch count. He throws a variety of pitches including a fastball, curveball, change, slider and a cutter. He’s an innings eater to boot, logging over 200 IP in eleven straight seasons. On the surface, he seems like a really fantastic fit.

There are a lot of issues here though, that are lingering at the surface and beneath. On the surface, there’s the issue of him becoming the sexy free agent this year. Every year, it seems like a guy who is a little further down the list in terms of talent becomes suddenly – and rather inexplicably – the guy that everyone needs to have on their team. Suddenly a huge market pops up, the price pops up even higher, and the lucky winner ends up getting their man, but often at a price that borders on ridiculous. I’d say this year’s sexy everyday player is Michael Cuddyer. This year’s pitcher? Definitely Mark Buehrle. Don’t get me wrong – I like this guy a lot, but I’ve got a strong feeling he’s going to be getting a four year deal and truth be told, for a guy who’s defied the DIPS theory for the better part of his career, that’s not the kind of contract I’d want to hand out to a 33-year old pitcher. It may sound insane, but I think there’s an extremely strong chance that someone goes as far as $50 million for this guy. Considering that the Red Sox are looking to add a #4 and NOT a #1/#2 pitcher, there’s no reason to flop that kind of money down on a pitcher like Buehrle – who is who he is and won’t be much more (or much worse, mind you) than what he is. Maybe teams rationalize it by paying for his predictability. Who knows? Still, I’d be wary to not get caught up in a bidding war.

The next big issue is his Strikeout percentage, which has lingered at around 12% over the past few years. Now that he’s likely past his prime, I have legit concerns about how much longer he’ll be able to keep that up. The other big worry is that a lot of his success comes from getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone without getting a lot of misses. I can’t help but think that the team that lands him is sitting on a ticking time bomb and it’s only  a matter of time before it blows up. I just don’t know how comfortable I’d be chasing him right now. If the market cools, I’d kick tires, but I wouldn’t sign him for any more than 2 years. I just don’t think it’s wise considering the tight-rope he’s been walking.

Most Upside: Roy Oswalt – Oswalt was due to have a down year and sure enough – last year was it. His back went south in the beginning of the season and he posted career-worst numbers almost across the board. However, a look at Oswalt month-to-month indicate that the back injury was almost 100% to blame for his drop off. His April and Septembers were fantastic, with him hanging around his normal 7.0 K/9 ratio. During the middle of the season however, nearly all of his pitches had higher contact rates. If only one or two of his pitches had dropped off a cliff, I’d be worried, but it was all of them. Combined with his walk rate – which even in spite of the injury was fairly consistent- would lead me to conclude that his control wasn’t an issue and it was more an issue of stuff. Oswalt has always been an aggressive pitcher, not known for pitching around hitters.  That’s an issue when your stuff isn’t good – and probably explains the spikes. I think it’s fairly safe to say that the back played an enormous role in his mid-season struggles.

Given a full offseason to get back in shape, I think Oswalt could have a strong bounce-back next year. Because of his injury, I feel like teams will be in a strong bargaining position as well. 2 years, $26 million would seem like a lot on its face, but I feel like the Red Sox could take the extra leap of faith here and potentially get another top-of-the-rotation arm. The concern of course is that the back issues linger and they end up with yet another questionable pitching contract. Still though, nothing seems to suggest that his skills have deteriorated. Like most aging pitchers with lots of miles logged it’s a question of health. Seeing as Oswalt’s injury history isn’t that extensive, I would lean towards him being a very worthwhile gamble.

Best Value: Hiroki Kuroda – The Red Sox have been enamoured with Kuroda for some time and with the Dodgers signing Chris Capuano last week, it seems like Kuroda may be on the move. Last July, the Red Sox had made acquiring Kuroda a priority and even got as far as having a deal in place, only for Kuroda to squash the deal with a no-trade clause he had in his contract. With Bobby Valentine manning the Red Sox bench, Kuroda in need of a team and the Red Sox in need of a pitcher who’s mostly a safe bet and won’t blow the bank – this might be the best value on the market.

The keyword there is ‘might’.

First a little background… Kuroda seems like a pitcher who’d fit well within the confines of Fenway – even at an advanced age. He rarely walks anyone (2.1 BB/9) and gives up even fewer home runs (1.07/9). He’s more ground-ball oriented than he is a strikeout pitcher, but has really good stuff despite not having a ton of velocity (in fact, he had the 9^th highest swing and miss % in baseball in 2010).  He uses a splitter as his strikeout pitch and throws two versions of a slider. His swing and miss % out of the strike zone is impressive to say the least.

His age is a double-edged sword. On one hand, you almost wonder if the bottom is going to fall out – but so far there doesn’t appear to be any indication that it will. The upside is that other pitchers have entered the ‘sexier’ category and Kuroda might be the guy who slips under the radar as a better value. I think he could certainly be had on a 2 year deal around $11-$12 per. Throw in some old man incentives and that might get the job done.

Don’t sleep on: Erik Bedard – I know. I’m sure you were hoping for Edwin Jackson or something, but seriously. Pop quiz: Who had the highest K/9 ratio among Red Sox starters last year? Erik Bedard. Who had the worst BABIP amongst Red Sox starters? Erik Bedard. The lowest HR/9? Erik Bedard. All of those signs point to him likely having a decent 2012. Of course, that comes with the same ‘if’ that’s followed Bedard around during his entire career – his health. No bones about it, Bedard is an injury factory. He’s got top of the rotation stuff and can be as difficult to deal with as anyone in baseball when he’s healthy, but that’s few and far between. I’m not saying Bedard is the #3/#4 guy. He just hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy enough to be that guy. But in tandem with Aceves in the back of the pen? If the price is right – which it may be – I’d bring him back.

Going dumpster diving on: Jeff Francis – Francis is a guy who keeps the ball on the ground a lot and is an innings chewer. His surface stats look poor, but there still might be a good pitcher in there, somewhere. He’s got the kinds of stats that would play well in a park like Fenway. He induces a lot of groundballs and gives up even fewer HR’s than Kuroda. He’s got a low walk rate to boot and to my great surprise, was a 2 WAR pitcher the past two seasons. Yeah, Jeff freakin’ Francis. There’s a low line drive % in there as well. I’ll be damned. Thanks to those inflated traditional stats, he’s a guy that I’ll bet goes for peanuts, making him more than worth a flier.

Read Full Post »

Daniel Bard is not a starting pitcher

Dude, seriously? Me? A starter? Did you SEE me in Single-A!? PHOTO CREDIT: Miami Herald

A lot of ideas have been bandied about this offseason as to how to fix the Red Sox ailing bullpen. One of the ideas that has gained significant traction is the idea of moving Daniel Bard to the starting rotation.

I can’t see how that’s anything but a bad idea.

In fact, I’m having a hard time figuring out what makes people think it’s a good idea. There’s almost nothing outside of pipe dream scenarios that would suggest Bard could be a starting pitcher at the Major League level.

Especially when you consider:

• That he lacks a starter’s repertoire– Bard has two outstanding pitches – his fastball and slider. He throws a change up that dives down and away from left handers, but it’s barely a below average pitch and not likely to help him at all as a starting pitcher. You’d have to think that if the Sox were to stretch him out, he’d have to take some oomph off his fastball as well – likely making it less effective – as Bard isn’t known for pinpoint control. So much for those sexy triple-digit heaters.

• He wasn’t a bad starter. He was awful – Check out this recap of Bard the starter in Single-A thanks to Brian MacPherson at the Providence Journal: 7.20 ERA with 3 K’s and 5 BB’s in the first inning. A 19.29 ERA with 4 K’s and 11 BB’s in the second inning. That was in Single-A Lancaster. After he was demoted to Greenville, he wasn’t much better. He racked up a 5.29  ERA in the 1^st inning, a 7.04 ERA in the second inning and 9.22 ERA in the third. He had a negative strike out to walk ratio. Yes, that’s right. Negative. If results were that bad in the minor leagues, I have a hard time seeing how results would be all that promising at the Major League level.

• His struggles as pitch counts get higher are worse than other relievers of his caliber- This isn’t that much of a worry for Bard as a reliever. He rarely gets to 20 pitches in a given outing. As a starter, becomes a huge red flag. Bard’s numbers fall off a cliff after 25 pitches. Proponents of the ‘start Bard’ crew would argue that it’s because he hasn’t been conditioned to go longer than that and I call BS – he was certainly in starter condition in Single-A. He didn’t perform. Besides, a lack of something is not proof of something else.

• He’s never pitched more than 80 innings in a single season – What’s even more worrisome is that over the past three years, we’ve seen substantial dips in his K/9 and increases in his BB/9 as he creeps closer to 80 innings. That’s not a good sign.

• He’s been a very good high-leverage reliever – He led the league in holds last year and has emerged as one of the most dominating relievers in the Majors. There’s no reason to remove him from that spot and create two potential holes provided he doesn’t pan out as a starter. Bard’s value is in the pen. If Boston were a team in desperate need to pursue dramatic pitching moves because they were out of options – it could be considered, but not on a team that already has three starters and $40 million sitting around to spend on other solutions (or other internal options like Alfredo Aceves).

• Remember the last time the Red Sox tried to convert an elite setup man to a starter’s role? Oh, hi Pap. How’s that lucrative closing contract in Philly treating you?

• ‘Because other teams have done it’ is the worst reason to do this – Fans have this nasty habit of falling for the ‘<fill in sexy organization of the week> did this stuff. We should do what they’re doing’ bit. Neftali Feliz, Justin Duchscherer and C.J. Wilson were all relievers who became starters and who all enjoyed success as starters. The big difference between those names and Bard is that those three were brought up through their respective systems as starters, not relievers. They were converted to relievers out of necessity, not the other way around. Bard is not the same kind of pitcher and lacks true professional experience as a starter.

With that in mind – the immediate question that follows is ‘well, if that’s true, then how come the Red Sox haven’t shot the rumor down?’ Good question, but I think there’s a logical answer to that, too.

Considering how out of control it appears the free agent market will get this offseason, the Red Sox would be smart not to kill the rumor and let it float out there that they’re not as in as desperate a need for starting pitching as it would appear. That in and of itself is a pretty good reason for keeping the lie alive as it could significantly improve their bargaining position.

Outside of that though, there’s not much of a reason to put Bard into the rotation. I’m sure it has been discussed at Fenway. I’m sure it may be discussed again sometime down the road. But there simply isn’t any evidence to suggest it would work other than a hope and a prayer – and that’s not a gamble the Red Sox should take in 2012 considering their needs and circumstances.

Read Full Post »

Red Sox hot stove weekly round-up (11/12 -11/18)

Here’s this week’s wrap-up of Red Sox hot-stove news:

• It was a wild week for the Red Sox managerial search. The team met, wined and dined Dale Sveum, but didn’t offer him a job. Sveum was also a favorite to land the Cubs job and sure enough – the next day he was hired to manage the north-siders. The move was met with some speculation that Ben Cherington had wanted to hire Sveum, but that Larry Lucchino, Tom Werner and John Henry overruled him. Since then, Lucchino, Cherington, and Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy have all come out refuting that sentiment, saying that the team has been taking a ‘collaborative’ approach to the process since the beginning

• Also being called in for second interviews will be Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr., Blue Jays 1B coach Torey Lovullo, and Tigers 3B coach Gene Lamont.

• Somewhat of a bombshell was dropped on Thursday as word leaked out that former Texas Rangers and New York Mets skipper Bobby Valentine was being considered for the job. Initially it was thought that he was injected into the process by Lucchino, but it later came out that Cherington had been talking to him all along, but it had been kept a secret. Valentine is somewhat of a polarizing figure – known for both his large baseball acumen and his equally boisterous personality. Proponents have praised his independence, personality and ‘take no guff’ approach. Critics are concerned that his independence could lead to miscommunications with the front office and that he’d be ill-equipped to handle the constant media frenzy that comes with being the skipper in Boston. Nonetheless, he’s a fascinating candidate.

• According to a team source, Michael Silverman has reported that there may be another high-profile secret candidate in the mix.

• The Red Sox have been shopping some of their out-of-options pitchers at this week’s GM meetings in Milwaukee. Some names included Franklin Morales, Andrew Miler, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden and Scott Atchison. Alex Speier of WEEI reported that the team may consider moving some of these players off of their current 40-man roster depending on how much interest is on the market.

• The Red Sox and Cubs still haven’t settled on appropriate compensation for Chicago Cubs President Theo Epstein. Talks are going to be tabled until after the Rule-5 draft.

• The Red Sox are said to be removing VP of player personnel and international operations Craig Shipley from his current position. The possible replacement? Former Expos and Mets GM Omar Minaya.

• The Red Sox remained engaged on the free agent front – checking in with Bob Garber who is the agent to free agent pitchers CJ Wilson and Roy Oswalt. The team also kicked tires on relievers Fransisco Cordero & Matt Capps as well as the majority of the shortstop market.

• There was a strong indication earlier this week that the Red Sox were in negotiations to possibly bring in San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell. It was rumored that Bell is reconsidering accepting arbitration from the Padres and is now open to come to the east coast. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also said that Colorado
• Rockies closer Houston Street may be on the Red Sox radar as a potential trade candidate.

• The Red Sox have reportedly made an offer to DH David Ortiz. Papi has yet to accept or decline their offer. The only other team supposedly interested in Ortiz is the Toronto Blue Jays according to Scott Miller. Papi has been very open about his desire to return to Boston. He said should he get a better offer, he’ll allow the Red Sox to match it.

• Josh Reddick is going to have wrist surgery, but should be healthy in time for opening day. There has been little movement on the OF bats as well as free agents in general. Now that the CBA is effectively done, expect teams to begin to get a lot more active

• The Red Sox will join the swath of teams in on Cuban defector Yeonis Cespedes. The team will host a private work out for him in the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

• Prospects 3B Will Middlebrooks, C Che-Hsuan Lin and Drake Britton have been added to Boston’s 40-man roster, protecting them from Rule-5 draft eligibility.

• Barry Meister, agent for SP Tim Wakefield, said it ‘would be a shame’ if Tim Wakefield did not get the chance to return to the Red Sox next year. It seems as if Wakefield wants to pitch next year and yes, he’s drawing some interest.

Read Full Post »

Red Sox Hot Stove Weekly Round-Up (11/5 – 11/12)

Here’s your weekly round-up of Red Sox hot stove news for the second week of November, 2011.

• Yesterday, it was announced that former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon had inked a four-year, $50 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Red Sox made no former offer to Papelbon according to GM Ben Cherington, with the major sticking point being the Red Sox willingness to include a fourth year in the deal. Papelbon’s agents didn’t let Boston match Philadelphia’s offer. Cherington didn’t rule out promoting setup man Daniel Bard nor pursuing a free agent to fill the closer’s role. Danny Knobler of CBS sports has reported that the Red Sox will be in on free agents Heath Bell and Ryan Madson.
• The Red Sox have been in active negotiations with David Ortiz and both sides have expressed a willingness to bring Papi back to Boston. Cherington, in a story from WEEI’s Rob Bradford, was quoted as saying yesterday, “It’s probably less likely to be a situation where he gets into the market and there’s something that he’s pushed into a corner on. David knows we want him to be here. We want him to be back with the Red Sox. We want him in our lineup. We’ve had a lot of dialogue to see if there’s a way to do that and I think that will continue.” With a clearly defined market, it seems highly likely that Ortiz is back in a Red Sox uniform next year.
• Sox brass doesn’t seem to be particularly enamored with this year’s free agent pitching market, citing the high degree of risk with regards to signing pitchers like CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle. “There are options, but riskier and would require some sort of bounce back from injury or bad luck or performance to some degree,” said Cherington. “We’re going to be exhaustive in looking at the ways we can build depth in our rotation and the bullpen.” The only free agent name the Red  Sox have been linked to is Mark Buehrle via Ken Rosenthal. A’s starter Gio Gonzalez has been speculated as someone whom the Red Sox may be interested in acquiring via trade according to the Globe’s Nick Cafardo.
• According to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox have made contact with Grady Sizemore and Michael Cuddyer. While there has been no formal discussion on contracts yet, they are also said to be very interested in Carlos Beltran. Yoenis Cespedes – the Cuban defector and highly sought after international signing – has also drawn some interest from the Red Sox, although it’s widely thought that the Marlins, Cubs and Yankees will likely go the extra mile to acquire the athletic outfielder.
• Boston’s search for a new skipper is also in full-swing, as the team wrapped up it’s interview process this week. Candidates interviewed included Blue Jays 1^st Base coach Torey Lovullo, Tigers 3B coach Gene Lamont, and Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr. According to Gordon Edes of ESPN, Cherington appears to be very high on Brewers hitting coach Dale Sveum to the degree that Edes believe Cherington is ‘just going through the process for the sake of due dilligence’. Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux, previously a candidate, withdrew his name from consideration.

Read Full Post »

Red Sox news and notes

Here’s the latest news coming off of Yawkey Way this weekend:

•  “People around the game are getting the idea that Theo Epstein will likely remain as Boston’s GM” reported SI’s John Heyman via Twitter last night. There seems to be a growing chorus of writers who seem to think Epstein is leaning with staying with the Red Sox.
• According to club sources, it appears as if the Red Sox are going through a bit of succession planning. Ownership seems ‘excited’ about the idea of Asst. GM Ben Cherington assuming Theo Epstein’s role as General Manager. Ownership would like to promote Epstein to the role of President or CEO ala Ben Shapiro in Cleveland, but don’t feel the need to have him should he turn the offer down. Epstein is burnt out from the GM job, although he’d like to remain with the Red Sox. What’s throwing the wrench in the works is that Epstein really isn’t interested in a club President type role. Ownership would like to keep Epstein on for a year to guide Cherington into the new role, but don’t feel he’s 100% necessary to the process either. In sum: Theo’s welcome to come on board if he wants to, but won’t be needed if he chooses not to.
• Add Dodgers 3^rd base coach Tim Wallach to the shortlist of potential Red Sox managerial candidates. Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe said that Wallach “is still at the stage of being considered for an interview”. He joins Dave Martinez, Dave Mackanin and Sandy Alomar, Jr. as favorites for the post.
• It appears that the Red Sox may have a potential landing spot for starting pitcher John Lackey. The San Diego Padres appear to be interested in Lackey and rumors are being bandided about by Tom Krasovic and others that Orlando Hudson might be involved in the deal. The Red Sox would – of course – have to eat a significant portion of Lackey’s salary.
• Without a doubt – the Red Sox #1 priority from a player standpoint will be adding starting pitching. The market should be very competitive, as the Rangers and Yankees will also be sifting around. John Harper of the New York Daily News is already looking at the market and is getting indications that James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos and Matt Cain may all be available this offseason. He’s also heard that the Yankees will not go to extremes to sign C.J. Wilson despite mutual interest. The Yankees will be willing to shop prospect Jesus Montero.

Read Full Post »