Meet Red Sox #24 draft pick Deven Marrero

Red Sox 1st Round pick Deven Marrero

It’s hard for me to think of a guy who’s been a more polarizing Red Sox draft pick in recent memory than Deven Marrero. The long and short is that Marrero was thought to be on the of the game’s best prospects heading into this year. He was nabbed in the 17th round back in 2009 by the Cincinnati Reds, but shrugged off their offer and took a full boat to Arizona State. Since going to college his bat has declined, hitting a low .289 this past year that effected his overall value with some. His defense made him a sure-fire 1st rounder though – as he’s from a rare breed of players who came up through high school and college as a SS and might have a real chance to make it to the Majors as one. Proponents have suggested patience with his bat while detractors have portrayed him as just another ‘all glove, no bat’ SS prospect.

In terms of his college career specifically, it’s hard to consider it anything but successful at this point. While the new bats have played a minor role, his batting average has declined over his three seasons from .397 his freshman year all the way down to just .286 this year. Perhaps a bit more worrisome are his declining OBP and SLG leading some folks to speculate whether or not he’s got the goods to be a Major League hitter. He’s not afraid to swing the bat – and although he’s got mostly average bat speed, he’s able to get to the ball pretty well. While he lacks the sheer natural power to drive the ball out of the park, he finds gaps very well and has more than enough speed to be a nuisance on the base pads. Some have speculated that if he can fill out physically, that he could hit for a little more power than people are thinking.

In terms of his defense, Marrero was considered one of the best – if not the best- players in the draft. He’s got a tremendous arm that he can use from a variety of off-balance positions and throw with plenty of accuracy. His footwork is exemplary and he possesses exceptional range. He transfers the ball well, positions himself well, and reads hitters very well. Although college shortstops get drafted frequently, few of them ever pan out defensively in that position. In just the Red Sox organization alone – we’ve seen Xander Bogaerts be discussed as more of an OF/3B-type. Marerro is a rare breed – a guy who was taken as a SS in the draft who can likely play there at the big league level.

Right now, the verdict is out. Again – a lot of folks are on the ‘all glove, no bat’ bandwagon with him but I’m having a hard time buying it. He’s essentially had one poor stretch of hitting – that being this year during his college schedule. He dominated his fist two years of collegiate ball and was a force in both the Cape League and on Team USA. To me- there’s no reason to think he can’t develop into a guy who hits for decent average, with a little pop and lots of gap power. Even if he’s average – with his defense being so strong at a premium position, he brings a ton of value to the table. And let’s not forget the last 1st round pick the Red Sox took a flier on – Jackie Bradley Jr. who hit a paltry .259 in his final injury-plagued season at South Carolina. He’s been tearing Single-A ball to shreds this year.

2012 MLB Draft – 1st Round comp. round

32. Minnesota Twins – Orlando Berrios, RHP – (Papa Juan XIII HS)

33. San Diego Padres- Zach Eflin, RHP (Hagerty HS, FL)

34. Oakland A’s- Daniel Robertson, SS (Upland HS, CA)

35. New York Mets- Kevin Plawecki, C (Purdue)

36. St. Louis Cardinals- Stephen Piscotty, 3B (Stanford)

27. Boston Red Sox –Pat Light, RHP (Monmouth)

38. Milwaukee Brewers – Mitch Haniger, OF (Cal Poly)

39. Texas Rangers –Joey Gallo, 3B (Bishop Gorman HS, NV)

40. Philadelphia Phillies- Shane Watson, RHP (California HS)

41. Houston Astros – Lance McCullers, RHP (Jesuit HS, TX)

42. Minnesota Twins- Luke Bard, RHP (Georgia Tech)

43. Chicago Cubs – Pierce Johnson, RHP (Missouri State)

44. San Diego Padres – Travis Jankowski OF – (Stony Brook)

45. Pittsburgh Pirates – Barrett Barnes, OF (Texas Tech)

46. Colorado Rockies – Eddie Butler, RHP (Bradford)

47. Oakland A’s- Matt Olsen, 1B (Parkview HS)

48. Chicago White Sox – Keon Barnum, 1b (King HS, FL)

49. Cincinnati Reds – Jesse Winker, OF – (Olympia HS, FL)

50. Toronto Blue Jays – Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS, OH)

51. Los Angeles Dodgers- Jesmuel Valentin, SS (Puerto Rico Baseball)

52. St. Louis Cardinals – Patrick Wisdom, 3B (St. Mary’s)

53. Texas Rangers – Collin Willes, (Blue Valley West HS, KS)

54. Philadelphia Phillies – Mitch Gueller, RHP (WF West HS, WA)

55. San Diego Padres – Walker Weickel, RHP (Olympia HS, FL)

56. Chicago Cubs – Paul Blackburn, RHP (Heritage HS, CA)

57. Cincinnati Reds – Jeff Gelalich, OF – (UCLA)

58. Toronto Blue Jays – Mitch Nay, 3B (Hamilton HS, AZ)

59. St. Louis Cardinals – Steve Bean, C (Rockwell HS, TX)

60. Toronto Blue Jays – Tyler Gonzalez, RHP (James Madison HS, TX)

2012 MLB Draft – 1st Round ongoing results

1. Houston Astros – Carlos Correa, SS – (Puerto Rican Baseball Academy)

2. Minnesota Twins – Byron Buxton, OF – (Appling County HS, GA)

3. Seattle Mariners – Mike Zunino, C – (University of Florida)

4. Baltimore Orioles – Kevin Gausman, RHP (Louisiana State University)

5. Kansas City Royals – Kyle Zimmer, RHP – (University of San Francisco)

6. Chicago Cubs – Albert Almora, OF – (Mater Academy, FL)

7. San Diego Padres – Max Fried, LHP – (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA)

8. Pittsburgh Pirates – Mark Appel, RHP – (Stanford University)

9. Miami Marlins – Andrew Haney, LHP – (Oklahoma State)

10. Colorado Rockies – David Dahl, OF – (Oak Mountain HS, AL)

11. Oakland Athletics – Addisson Russell , SS – (Pace HS, FL)

12. New York Mets – Gavin Cecchini, SS (Barbe, Lake Charles, FL)

13. Chicago White Sox – Courtney Hawkins, OF/RHP – (Carroll HS, TX)

14. Cincinnati Reds – Nick Travieso, RHP – (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)

15. Cleveland Indians – Tyler Naquin, OF – (Texas A&M)

16. Washington Nationals – Lucas Giolito, RHP (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA)

17. Toronto Blue Jays- D.J. Davis, OF, (Stone HS, MS)

18. Los Angeles Dodgers – Corey Seager, SS ( Northwest Cabbarus HS, WS)

19. St. Louis Cardinals – Michael Wacha, RHP (Texas A&M)

20. San Francisco Giants – Chris Stratton, RHP (Mississippi State)

21. Atlanta Braves – Lucas Sims, RHP (Brookwood HS, GA)

22.Toronto Blue Jays – Marcus Stroman, RHP – (Duke University)

23. St. Louis Cardinals – James Ramsey, OF (Florida State)

24. Boston Red Sox –Devin Marrero, SS (Arizona State)

25. Tampa Bay Rays – Richie Shaefer, 3B (Clemson)

26. Arizona Diamondbacks – Stryker Trahan, C (Acadiana HS, LA)

27. Milwaukee Brewers – Clint Coulter, C (Union HS, WA)

28. Milwaukee Brewers – Victor Roache, OF (Georgia Southern)

29. Texas Rangers – Lewis Brinson, OF (Coral Springs HS)

30. New York Yankees – Ty Hensley, RHP – (Santa Fe HS, OK)

31. Boston Red Sox – Brian Johnson, LHP – (Florida)

What’s wrong with Daniel Bard?

Watching Daniel Bard pitch like this is pretty head scratching stuff. I don’t know if anyone imagined him being as bad as he’s been as a starter, even folks like me who were mostly pessimistic about the idea of a conversion from the outset.

Can’t throw strikes. When he does, yikes (Credit: AP)

This post isn’t so much the answer to the question of what’s wrong with Bard, but I think certain information can help point us in the right direction. A lot of this is thinking out loud, here, so bear with me.

The walks

Lots is being made of his BB/9. That’s obviously an issue, but other pitchers on this team (and around the league) have been able to get away with higher walk rates largely because they can get guys to whiff and strikeout a lot (See: Felix Doubront, Gio Gonzalez).

Bard’s walk rate is up from last year from a 2.96 to a 6.05. That’s staggering. His K/9 ratio is down from a 9.12 last year to a 5.40. That’s more staggering. Part of my initial observations is that it seems like he’s not getting away with his usually high walk rates because he’s not striking guys out anymore. I even haggled a little with Brian MacPherson over at ProJo a bit this afternoon on Twitter, although I had no numbers in front of me to back it up.

Stopped by Sons of Sam Horn tonight and Reverend put this table up in a post with some pretty revealing data that kind of lend some credence to my completely unsubstantiated propaganda this afternoon. Reverend put up a table breaking down Bard’s strike % per pitch in two bins – essentially 2011 Bard pre-September meltdown and 2012 Bard pre-June 3^rd meltdown. Some interesting stuff to be sure from guys way smarter than I am.

The numbers back up the ‘he’s walking too many guys, duh’ crowd pretty effectively.

In 2011, he threw strikes 64.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing them 57.6% of the time. His strike % on his changeup is down almost a full 15%. Obviously, his inability to command pitches is a huge part of the problem.

Strikes that suck

What’s scarier though, is when you look at the pitches he’s actually been throwing for strikes. They’re not nearly as effective has they’ve been in the past.

Maybe my eyes weren’t lying.

In 2011, he got hitters to swing at 45.6% of his strikes. 13.1% of his pitches got full-blown whiffs. In 2012, hitters have swung at only 36.63% of his strikes. They’ve only whiffed on 6.26% of said strikes. That’s a 50% decline in swings and misses. Hitters are being more selective with Bard in general. The pitches they’re waiting on, they seem to be hitting a lot more, or at least missing a lot less.

His command’s been awful. There’s no doubt about that. And yes – it’s true that a move back to the bullpen likely gets his velocity back up and reduces the walks he’s handing out – at least a little bit. But the ineffectiveness of his pitches in general has got to be looked at more carefully.  While it’s true that he’s a different pitcher when he’s throwing hard – if the issue IS his command – then why hasn’t he been able to get it under control by throwing with less velocity? The problem could be mechanical, but then that’s going to be an issue regardless of whether he’s in the ‘pen or in the rotation.

Again – I’m making no real conclusion/solution here – just thinking out loud.

Mechanics and history suggest this is probably going to get worse

Back in December I wrote this piece commenting a bit on his mechanical issues and his clearly demonstrated fatigue the closer he’s gotten to 80 IP being a serious question that would have to be answered to give us an indication of his long-term viability as a starter.

I basically posed the question that the sides on the Bard conversion boiled down to his mechanics:

I think which side you fall on in the “Bard to the rotation” debate is pretty much going to be determined on how you answer these two questions:

1. 1.     Are Daniel Bard’s mechanical issues attributed to his conditioning (or lack thereof), and if they are…
2. 2.     Would better conditioning that comes from being stretched out mitigate the control issues?

In 2009, his numbers blew up in August. In 2010, they blew up in September. In 2011, they blew up in September again. His career wOBAA is .260 through August. In September it skyrockets to a .339 wOBAA. It hits .310 in August, which means that the decline starts right around there –likely somewhere around 55-65 IP. Right now, we’re headed into 55IP territory and he looks awful and seems to be getting worse, with his control completely eluding him. As of tonight, we’re at 55 IP.

Again, that’s not conclusive and it’s not an ‘aha’ moment or anything, but it’s worth noting. He’s struggling more and more with not only his control – but the effectiveness of the pitches he’s throwing for strikes as well. That would suggest that conditioning has nothing to do with mechanics here and we’re looking at a guy who’s just not very dependable past 55 IP. I’ll feel safe(r) making that conclusion (or debunking it, entirely) in a month or so, but I think the writing on the wall is beginning to be pretty apparent.

“Daniel Bard, starting pitcher” worthwhile experiment, but I’m not sure that you can go much further with this, especially when you’ve got a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka performing well in Triple-A.

Felix Doubront is for real

It was kind of dumb to forget about this guy. (Credit: Elsa/Getty Images North America)

Sometimes I wonder what made everyone forget about Felix Doubront.

Well, maybe I shouldn’t say that. I’ve got a good idea why, but I’m still wondering how he fell as off the radar as he did.

Doubront was signed as an international free agent in 2004 – a time where the Red Sox farm system was getting flooded with premium talent. Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson would all be drafted within two years of Doubront’s arrival.

It wasn’t that Doubront was ever really a bad prospect; it’s just that he wasn’t ever a ‘can’t miss’ prospect. In fact, from the get-go, most thought he had the goods to get to the Major Leagues. Early in his Minor League career, most scouts had him projected as a middle to back-end of the rotation starter. However, as his development wore on, people in the organization began to notice a lot of obvious shortcomings – especially his focus on the mound.

At the Double A and Triple A levels, Doubront became a pitcher more or less notorious for throwing a few good innings and then falling off the tracks somewhere around his fourth or fifth inning of work. His mechanics would go, his concentration, location – all of it. The Red Sox began to question whether or not he’d ever pan out as a starter and began using him in relief roles more frequently, causing many to speculate whether he’d become anything more than a reliable 7th inning arm out of the bullpen.

With expectations lowering and more sexy, intriguing players like Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Bard, Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish emerging as top farm talent, Doubront more or less went back to being lost in the mix. To put the cherry on top, a 2011 shoulder strain threw his whole season off, leaving him as a guy who seemed destined to be someone remembered as a capable talent who’d have an unspectacular big league career and then likely fade into obscurity.

The funny thing about the Red Sox farm system since 2003 is that almost everyone we’ve brought up has been a star, or close to it. Dustin Pedroia – who was drafted in the same year Doubront signed, is a five-year veteran, with a nice, shiny AL MVP award sitting on his mantle piece. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon have been arguably two of the best players at their respective positions since 2007. Jon Lester and Justin Masterson emerged as reliable front-end of the rotation pitchers. Each one of those players tore through the Minor Leagues with the possible offshoot of skewing fans’ perceptions of player development along the way.

Doubront, on the other hand, developed the way most players do. He dominated the lower levels of the minors before hitting some snags at both the Double and Triple-A levels. He grew into both levels quickly and usually found himself promoted once a year. He got his first whiff of Major League action as a reliever in 2010 and even got a longer stint out of the ‘pen last year. It’s not the sexy way to come up, but there’s also nothing wrong with it, either. Dare we say that Doubront’s climb was normal.

Doubront merely needed what most young players like him needed – a chance to play and prove himself. Finally, that opportunity presented itself this year.

With a blown-out back-end of the rotation and little money to spend, the Red Sox decided to spend the offseason hedging their bets on a random assortment of orts and other miscellaneous waste- ranging from dumpster dives, out of options prospects and reclamation projects. With no one really noticing, Doubront was one of the many invited to camp with the chance to make the starting rotation.

He reported to Spring Training in great shape and with much of the attention focused on Daniel Bard’s conversion from a reliever to a starter and the endless character analysis of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, Doubront quietly impressed many behind the scenes and emerged as a surprise winner of the final spot in the starting rotation.

Since then, his numbers haven’t just been good – he’s been the best pitcher on the team. He’s sporting a 3.54 SIERA and a rotation-high 9.48 K/9. People are finally beginning to take notice, especially after his whitewashing of the vaunted Detroit Tigers lineup the other night, an effort that included two incredible strikeouts of Miguel Cabrera.

Praise was instant and over-the-top, of course. NESN even went as far as to speculate whether Doubront was Cy Young material. While it’s probably too early to be making those kinds of proclamations, one thing should be abundantly clear: Felix Doubront is a mature, capable and talented Major League starting pitcher.

While there hasn’t been much criticism levied his way, there has been a lot made out of Doubront’s apparent lack of efficiency with his pitches. While his pitch counts do tend to climb quickly, that’s not really due to a lack of control so much as his pitch selection. While Doubront is capable of dialing up a mid-90’s fastball, it’s his off-speed stuff he often depends on to get outs. He has a Change-up that drops off the table and a looping 12-6 curve that’s developed into one of his best swing and miss pitches in his arsenal. He lives in the extreme bottom of the strike zone while throwing his fastball and the occasional cutter further up, so his missing the zone more frequently than others shouldn’t really come as a surprise. I just so happens to be where he likes to live.

Everything he’s throwing into the zone is being swung at, missed and hit at career averages. His swings and misses outside the zone have gone up nearly 5%, but with a high walk rate, it’s not like hitters aren’t already expecting it or aren’t laying off his pitches. The development of his curve ball into a plus pitch – I think – is what’s led to the increase in whiffs.

It’s also become very apparent that he’s confident in his stuff. He’s not throwing pitches tailing out of the zone because he’s afraid of getting hit, but rather that’s where he likes to throw the ball. His willingness to sacrifice a walk for a few added strikeouts is evident in the parallels between his k/9 and BB/9 throughout his minor league career. As his strikeout rate has risen, so has his walk rate. Doubront seems to be confident that he can get hitters to chase more than he can get them to take his pitches. So far, the strategy is working.

In terms of how he’s approached hitters, not much has changed. He’s pitching at the same pace and using almost exactly the same mix. He’s employed his curveball more in recent years and throws almost an identical amount of changeups. While he pulls the cutter out of the bag only about 9% of the time, he likes to use it to nip at the corners a bit and gives him a slightly more versatile pitch to change hitters’ eye level with.

Most telling might be the total absence of luck in his performance. His LOB% is sitting at 73.3% – a tick over the magic, dead center 72.2%. His BABIP is .303. His HR/FB% is a bit above 12%, which would suggest he might be unlucky.

With no signs of luck to point to regression, the increase in velocity, and the consistency in his approach – it appears that this is most certainly not a fluke. Ladies and gentleman, meet Felix Doubront.

While his path to success hasn’t been the most glamorous, there’s no doubt that the Red Sox have cultivated one of the most prized assets in baseball- young, cost-controlled, talented, left-handed starting pitching.

Is he for real? I’d most definitely say yes.