A pre-Spring Training prance through the petunias

Some random musings on the past few weeks…

Just when you thought it was safe to order beer and chicken again…

Spring Training is right around the corner, which means we in the New England baseball community get to brace ourselves for the inevitable tidal wave of unfounded hysteria and stupidity that is about to flow from the fingertips of the Boston sports media ‘brain trust’ as anticipation builds towards the start of the 2012 season.

It’s the time of year when Dan Shaughnessy aggressively fudges facts to fit corny and clichéd narratives… When Nick Cafardo gets his Ralph Wiggam on… And one of my emerging favorites – that time of year when we wonder if Sean McAdam talks to his wife in that tone of voice that never seems to change no matter whom or where he so happens to be talking.

Of course, never to be out-boxed in the arena of selective analysis, Tony Massarotti is getting a head start on everyone this year. His first target is unsurprisingly Josh Beckett as was indicated this week in a spectacularly dishonest column that will surely qualify for my “Dumb Journalists Are the Reason No One Reads Newspapers Anymore… See? Check this shit out!” award of the year.

After saying absolutely nothing new in five paragraphs, Massarotti dropped his trousers, grabbed his ankles and unleashed this mighty fart into the air:

“In his final eight starts of 2011, Beckett posted a 5.06 ERA. In his final two outings – against the Baltimore Orioles – Beckett allowed 12 runs and four homers in 13.1 innings. Truth be told, Beckett’s performance was not much worse than most anyone else who pitched for the Red Sox down the stretch, though there is one obvious difference between Beckett and everyone else.”

Talk about cherry picking stats to shoehorn an argument into a pre-packaged story… especially when you consider:

• If you expand Tony’s sample size to his last 9 games: 4.66 ERA, almost a full half point lower
• If you decrease it to the last 7 games: 4.60 ERA, not good, but again – more than a half a point lower
• Of course, the poor Seattle games has to be the starting point of the sample size, because – of course – that wouldn’t fit the story. This isn’t Choose Your Own Adventure after all.
• His peripheral stats were pretty good – at least good enough to give his team a good chance to win in several of the games he pitched in.

It should go without saying that he’d conveniently gloss over the good stuff that Beckett was responsible for, including his increased K/9 rate, the quality of his opponents over that stretch, the ankle injury he never used as an excuse.

When you actually look at the sample, all of his numbers are inflated as a result of the last two games in Baltimore. Without those two games factored in, Beckett looks like a totally different pitcher. The numbers don’t lie:

• From 8/18-9/16: a 3.08 ERA (7-game sample)
• From 8/13-9/16: a 3.58 ERA (9 game sample)

And of course, we’re all still waiting to hear the story on the cumulative effects on chicken wing consumption over the course of a season that apparently didn’t affect Beckett at all in August but miraculously did in September.

Still, there’s a story waiting to be written about why Beckett sucked so hard in his last two starts just waiting to be written, but….

STICK TO THE SCRIPT~!

What’s worse – is that while his selective stat-picking was the worst part of his column, it wasn’t close to being the weirdest part. That would be his re-telling the tale of the Josh Beckett of days gone by. Massarotti recounts the days when good ole Joshy wrote a $5,000 check to a Red Sox employee who was in desperate financial straights and then directed teammates to do the same.  He goes onto cite his past leadership, work ethic and the usual litany of things that give Boston Sports Scribes that fuzzy feeling in their pants.

But of course, now that he ate chicken and had two bad games –he’s an insufferable douchebag. Just like that. It’s not just that Josh Beckett pitched two bad games. Now it’s that he’s a bad person.

Give to charity. Help people in need. Pitch well for 90% of a season. Just don’t cost Tony the opportunity to grace us with his worldly baseball knowledge in front of national television cameras in October. Do that- and you’re meat. Not just as a pitcher, but as a person. All in all – a pretty unbelievable precedent to set.

It’s made all the more ironic considering the lecture in being humble is coming from a guy who’s stylized his last name to rhyme with a certain Red Sox Hall of Famer. You really couldn’t make it up if you tried.

I keep hearing the drum-line coming out of imploding newsrooms all over the country that we should read them over blogs and other new-media sources because they adhere to ‘standards’ and ‘responsibility’.

The thing is, that’s kind of a hard sell when your journalists hen-peck stats and omit facts when it’s convenient to do so in the name of reinforcing a cooked up narrative for the sake of clicks or getting themselves in front of a TV camera. Just saying 

David Ortiz and the Red Sox agree on a deal

Well, sort of. More like ‘settled’. A lot of people were balking at the $14 million he got, but I don’t have a problem with it. It’s better than making a multi-year commitment. Ultimately, of all the pieces the Red Sox stood to lose this season, Ortiz’s bat would have likely been the most impactful. Not only are you losing his production but the opportunity cost to replace said production would have been much higher relative to other areas of the roster.

Essentially, for $1.5 million more, the Red Sox kept the most productive guy at his position in baseball. We can debate the merits of the DH in general (and truth be told, you wouldn’t get much in the way of blowback from me), but please find me another .300/.398/.554, 4-fWAR hitter who’d have run you $14 million either in money or a trade for prospects. He’s not a ‘value’, but there’s pretty clear justification for bringing him back at that price.

His 3-4 wins on what was a ‘90-win but could be more next year’ team brings increased value if you’re looking at the win-curve. Wins 88-92 are a lot more valuable than wins 93-100 and 84-88. Considering his true worth is around $10-12 million anyway, the extra $2 million doesn’t seem too bad considering that the cost of wins 88-92 is around $3 million a pop in revenue. They’ll make that money back no problem. The fact that they didn’t plop another year down on the deal makes it better.

When coupled with his revenue-generating marquee value and the low-risk nature of the deal, it’s a no brainer for the Red Sox.

Enough about Roy Oswalt.

Does anyone remember that shitty 80’s movie “The Wizard”? The one where Fred Savage, some chick who probably moonlighted on the Mickey Mouse Club and his little brother Jimmy headed west for CALIFORNIA~! and trip over pile after pile of Nintendo paraphernalia along the way? The same movie where the payoff was basically a shoehorned 2-minute preview of Super Mario 3 and a bunch of fucking around in oversized plastic dinosaurs?

Yeah, you Oswalt wanters are Little Jimmy.

Truth be told, I’m ready to go to war with what we have…

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The real reason the Red Sox haven’t signed an established starter

When your pitching rotation had the equivalent of these two in it last year, it shouldn't be that hard to upgrade.

Roy Oswalt wanted to go to Texas, but they don’t have room. He wanted to go to the Cardinals, but they can’t move a contract. The Reds kicked tires and Oswalt, himself kicked the Tigers and Blue Jays to the curb. It’s safe to say – he’s a pitcher minus a market – unless of course, you’re a Red Sox fan – which means you’re likely sitting around pulling your hair out as to why Ben Cherington and company haven’t been more enthusiastic in their pursuit of the one-time ace, especially considering the fact that they appear to be the only bidders out on the market.

I’ve heard a lot of arguments as to why the Sox haven’t appeared more motivated, ranging from Oswalt’s back to the fact that the Red Sox are the new Bear Stearns and on the cusp of fiscal implosion… Needless to say, people aren’t happy and in the process – aren’t hesitating to bring the stupid this offseason.

That’s not to say there hasn’t been some more logical reasoning out there. Some folks think Cherington is waiting him out – which, in this case– he’d be right to do. If there isn’t another bidder on the market, the Red Sox shouldn’t sign him for anything more than their initial offer. That’s just smart, disciplined business. Considering the injury risk and age, there is most definitely a chance that an unhealthy Oswalt could be a serious potential sunken cost in the short-term – especially if the Red Sox are operating in the fiscal constraints everyone says they are. Mitigating risk as much as possible should be rule #1 for any business, period – never mind a multi-million dollar entity like the Boston Red Sox. That’s a reason I can believe in.

The other argument is that the Red Sox are waiting to see what happens with David Ortiz’s arbitration case. If they win, it’s a few more million tacked onto the back end of the budget. Sweetening the pot a cool $2 million or so might be just enough to woo Roy’s contemplative soul to come to Boston.

While that makes sense on it’s face, I think there’s another more logical, straight forward reason why the Red Sox haven’t signed Oswalt – or any other bigger name starter this offseason: They don’t feel like they need one.

Yah, you read that right. I’ve heard the mainstream media prattle off endless possibilities this offseason and plenty of bloggers have weighed in with their imaginary rotations as well – but the one scenario no one really envisioned was them merely converting Bard and buying a lot or no-risk arms and hoping for the best. What might seem crazy on the surface though, is anything but when you place the decision up against the backdrop of the rest of the 40-man roster. After taking some time to contemplate this all myself, I’m OK (not great) with the decision. There’s definitely risk involved – but there’s extreme reward – a reward that could pay colossal dividends later in the season and shouldn’t just be discarded because it makes you feel a little uncomfortable.

With that, let’s consider a few things here:

Not having John Lackey in the rotation is an upgrade in and of itself.

Everyone knows how bad John Lackey was last year, but I don’t know if they’ve fully comprehended just how bad he was and how easy it will be to improve the rotation just on the basis of him not being there. Of every starting pitcher with a minimum of 150 IP, Lackey’s ERA+ of 66 gives him the 20^th worst mark for a hurler since 1901. Basically, John Lackey ‘s 2011 is in the 1% of shittiest pitching seasons to have ever occurred. That, ladies and gentleman… is the bar that’s been set.

What that means is that even a nominal or poor upgrade is a big one for this rotation. In fact, former Red Sox Consultant Eric Vann put it into context better than I ever could in a post he made over at Sons of Sam Horn a few months ago:

Bard for Lackey is just a slight upgrade? Andrew Miller for John Lackey would be a 1.6 win upgrade (based on last year’s ERA). Does anyone regard Daniel Bard throwing Lackey’s 160 innings with a 4.20 ERA as overly optimistic? That’s a 4-win upgrade.

My point here isn’t that what they have is an improvement over Lackey being in the rotation. It’s that Lackey not being in the rotation, period is an upgrade due to the fact that in order for someone to be as bad as he was – they’d have to overcome nearly impossible odds to do it. As in – they’d have to actively try to suck that hard.

When you’ve got a team this good, sometimes it makes sense to gamble.

Also in his post, Vann made another important point and illustrated it well – that the Red Sox view the pitching situation as being fluid in the sense that due to the strength of the rest of their team, they’ll be able to do something many other teams don’t have the luxury of doing – and that’s gambling on upside in their rotation.

Where he more or less stopped short, and I’m hoping to expand upon – is that that the frequent mistake fans and sports writers tend to make – is that they compartmentalize teams. They look at the lineup as it’s own entity. They view the rotation and bullpen as sections of the team as opposed to viewing the 40-man roster as a collective whole. The Red Sox look at every move in the context of its contributions towards win expectancy for the entire team. Nothing more, nothing less.

Fans, on the other hand, treat it like they’re going grocery shopping.

If we step back and view the team as a whole – as it was on October 1^st… most fans see a team that needs to be upgraded with the help of outside acquisitions, but smart front offices see opportunities for more wins from within. The 2011 Red Sox finished with 90 wins, but their Pythagorean record had them winning 94 games based on their true statistical performance.

That means, “as is” or even if they exactly replicate last year from a performance standpoint, they should win 94 games. That means John Lackey sucks again, Carl Crawford spends most of the season lost in LF, nothing happens in RF, we have no back end of the rotation, etc.

Truth be told, most of the ‘make up’ or gains from this team will indeed be found from within. A healthy Kevin Youkilis means a win. A well below career average Carl Crawford likely tallies two more wins. Having an average RF likely contributes another win. That’s four wins that can be found from staying healthy, or utilizing internal talent better.

Long story short – the opportunity for this team to make up the most lost ground surprisingly comes from its lineup, not the rotation. So what does that mean? It means the Red Sox can spend nominal money on pitching as a whole and gasp gamble on upside in their starting rotation in a variety of ways

We’ve covered Lackey, but what about everything else?

To answer the question of ‘everything else’, you need to take a step back and consider Daniel Bard as a starter and what kind of implications he might have in the rotation as a potential upgrade. Mind you, at the beginning of the offseason I was a pretty big skeptic of the move. Consider me converted.

Here are Bard’s projections as a starter in 2012 from not just one, but a few different places, including me:

• ROTO: 155 IP, 3.43 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 9.35 K/9, 3.25 BB/9

• Fangraphs: 168 IP, 3.47, 3.50 FIP, 9.00 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

• ME~!: 142 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 8.92 K/9, 3.37 BB/9

Average: 155 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 9.09 K/9, 3.26 BB/9

That’s not an improvement – that’s a huge improvement. In fact, those are better numbers than Roy Oswalt, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez – three guys Red Sox fans were very interested in at the beginning of the offseason. It’s not a surprise that the little thing we call ‘opportunity cost’ peaks its head up and wonders why we’re buying a number 4 starter when we already have one who might be better than that.

So the Bard conversion now becomes a no-brainer. This team – without adding any real outside help, could earn itself an additional 2 wins by placing a reliever into it’s #4 slot. Whether you take that as a good thing or bad thing is up to you, but this team – with Daniel Bard in the rotation – is ostensibly better with him in it than without.

So the only question that remains is what to do with the final spot in the rotation. Someone needs to take John Lackey’s place, which is nearly impossible not to improve upon. We could throw Aaron Crow. Maybe Vicente Padilla. Maybe you. Me. Who knows. Anything is likely an upgrade over Lackey.

That’s two wins thanks to Bard. That’s a win and a half thanks to Lackey not being a starting pitcher. That’s 3.5 wins without having to spend much of anything. Of course, that’s not considering what the plethora of out-of-option rookies could do for the Red Sox in and out of the bullpen.

Long story, short – the Red Sox haven’t been aggressive in pursuing high priced free agents because they don’t need them and the cost to significantly upgrade the rotation is incredibly low. So far, their stance with Roy Oswalt has reflected that: “We’d love to have you, but only at our price. We don’t need you.”  And guess what – they don’t.

Regardless of how you feel, without doing much of anything, the Red Sox could stand to win 6 or 7 more games by doing….not very much at all.

Red Sox fans have become used to big-name acquisitions year after year. It’s gotten to the point that if Sox fans don’t feel as if they’re procured one, that the offseason is a failure. Truth of the matter is that the Red Sox have improved this team largely from within and thanks for the plethora of internal talent it possesses, it’s had the luxury of staying out of the bidding for premium priced, high-risk free agents almost entirely.

Granted, I’d love to have Oswalt. I think it’d turn the pitching into an instant strength. But consider there’s no market for him and no real incentive for the Red Sox to acquire him now, then the Sox should only jump on him if the price is right. And that price… is their price. They already are a vastly improved team from what they were a year ago simply by identifying low-risk pieces and incorporating them into the team.

Yes, not signing more pitchers is risky, but the real crime would be passing on the opportunity to gamble here.

Also considering that Daisuke Matsuzaka could be back in June or July, it’s a real stretch to think that the Red Sox can’t get to that point really good shape. If they get there and the Red Sox need to make a trade, they can. If they’re in trouble – then chances are something else on the team will have to go very south in order for them to be that bad.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to do something a lot of other teams simply never get to do and that’s identify cost effective solutions to some of their ills and spend little money in doing so. That’s saved money that could go a long way – especially if the team feels the need to make the upgrade in July.

Regardless, get used to feeling uncomfortable. Unless Roy wants to play at our price, he won’t be here for Spring Training.

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Tuning out the noise around the Red Sox offseason

 

I love trash picking.

So I guess it’s time I got off my can and finally write something again… but I’ll be honest, it’s taken me a few weeks to figure out what to write about… and even with all that time, I’ve failed miserably. So here’s some random stuff for you to chew on:

Marco Scutaro traded to the Rockies for some guy – I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but anyone who thought we were seriously going to get anything of note in return for an out and out salary dump of a 36 year old Shortstop with declining defensive value this late in the offseason has got to be smoking something. While Nick Punto and Mike Aviles are not a perfect platoon – they should do just fine. Punto’s patience and defense should compliment the ‘good enough’ bat of Aviles nicely. Let’s not forget, Aviles has been a pretty solid player when he’s had the opportunity to play full time, hitting .300 in each season and posting a completely acceptable .833 and .748 OPS in those seasons, respectively. Interestingly enough, Bill James has him projected at a .734 OPS next year which would put him a point above last year’s AL average for OPS  among shortstops with a min. of 400 plate appearances (.733).

The story here though, is still the salary dump – which is a sound one. A lot of people had discussed the idea of trading Kevin Youkilis, but considering his age and recent injury history, the Red Sox would have been trading him when his value was low. Sure, you could make the case that bringing David Ortiz back was a mistake, but considering he’s a far more productive offensive player than Scutaro, that wasn’t likely to happen. Scutaro was the one guy they could move who would both save the Red Sox money and hurt them the least in terms of lost production. It’s safe to say a healthy Kevin Youkilis, re-wired Carl Crawford or a good-to-go Adrian Gonzalez make up for that lack of production rather quickly. Defensively, the move is a wash.

Financially, the move makes even more sense as WEEI’s Alex Speier pointed out a few weeks ago. In addition to saving on Scutaro’s salary, the team didn’t have to pay a $1.5 million buy-out on his option year. All in all, the move saved them $7.5 million dollars – of which gives them more flexibility heading forward to make upgrades elsewhere on their roster.

Nice to see we got Mike Lowell to play right field – When you take an honest look at the RF platoon of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, it should surprise you how much of an upgrade these two are over the Drew/Reddick sinkhole from last year.

• Sweeney is a career .296/.352/.402 hitter against righties with a .754 career OPS.

• Ross is a career .282/.349/.563 hitter against lefties with a .912 career OPS.

• Both are pretty good defenders.

Between the two, that gives you a starting Right Fielder with a career line of .282/.350/.482 and a career .833 OPS. Just to give you an idea of what that kind of production is like – consider Mike Lowell’s .279/.342/.414 line with a career .805 OPS. Obviously, it’d be nice to have one player capable of putting up those kinds of numbers, but it’s not like there’s a shortage of corner outfielders in Major League Baseball should the Red Sox elect to upgrade later on this year. We should be fine.

People need to chill on this pitching thing- The Red Sox are in the market for a #4 starter and a #5 starter. They don’t need Roger Clemens. As is – they may not need anything else at all. Considering John Lackey was historically bad last year, it’s almost inconceivable that even if Daniel Bard falters in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation that he’ll be as bad as Lackey was in 2011. Provided Bard can make it 150 innings (that remains to be seen), he’s already an upgrade. It’s nearly impossible to fathom that the Red Sox don’t hit on one of Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Alfredo Aceves, Justin Germano and John Maine – or – at least hit enough to ferry us to a returning Dice-K or a trade candidate in June/July. All things considered, while I’m not entirely sold on the idea of this team heading into the year with question marks at the back end of the rotation, I am OK with it.

Simply put, the pitching market is awful right now. There’s no need to get overcommitted or make a bad deal because everyone’s making a lot of noise. In fact, waiting might be the best policy. There might be a better player available later on this season at a better cost. With the Red Sox at that point likely having the cash to fit said player, an improved post-draft bargaining position and a whole heck of a lot of motivation to make a big splash, biding time and letting the market spin itself into the ground has it’s benefits.

The flip side of that argument is that it appears the Red Sox have some options available should they choose to explore them. They have a good shot to land Edwin Jackson, not much of a shot to get Roy Oswalt and if they’re desperate, they can pull down their pants and take a shot from Kenny Williams and get Gavin Floyd. Still, the need isn’t compelling enough for the Red Sox to bum-rush the market and make a deal on anything other than their terms.  After all, these pitchers are still shuffling through the market for a reason: there isn’t a robust market for any of them.

While the Red Sox do hold the chips in this situation, it’s still going to be a challenge to convince a free agent to come to Boston on a one-year deal and well below his asking price. If the point of a pillow deal is to build value by padding stats, the American League East isn’t exactly high on the list of desirable destinations. If they can pull it off though, they may find themselves finding the best possible value in a challenging market and in turn – convert their rotation from a question mark, to an unquestionable strength.

Edwin Jackson – in particular – would be a huge steal –  Jackson’s 3.55 FIP in 2011 was better than Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Gio Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson and Wandy Rodriguez. His xFIP was better than Floyd, Matt Cain, Daniel Hudson, Danks, Jered Weaver, Marcum, Billingsley, Buehrle and Hellickson.  Considering nearly all of those guys are paid a lot more than $5-6 million a year and/or cost a small country to acquire this offseason, the Red Sox might be getting the best value on the market. Should the Red Sox somehow be able to convince him to take short money and a one-year deal, then their policy of patience should be given it’s proper due.

Which makes it all the more ridiculous that some people are calling this the worst Red Sox offseason in history. In fact, there’s a chance it could be one of their best – Should the Red Sox sign Jackson, they’ll have addressed nearly every major issue the team had in September at the cost of about $12 million dollars. They’ll have upgraded their rotation, added considerable low-risk pitching depth, maintained their bullpen and may have managed to upgrade their lineup and defense. In the process, they will have avoided risky, long-term contracts and along the way, found some pretty cool guys to liven and lighten up a tight, tenuous clubhouse atmosphere. Sprinkle on top what’s sure to be a competitive atmosphere in Spring Training and there’s a very good shot that this team heads into the season a far more stable, balanced unit then what we sent to camp in 2011.

Tune out the noise. In an offseason where so much is riding on precision and careful, calculated risks, the Red Sox may have scored a direct hit.

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Roy Oswalt makes sense for Red Sox, but do the Sox make sense for him?

 

Knee-high socks. Knee-high fastballs. Hooray!

So it seems the Red Sox are still playing hokey-pokey with the non-scrap heap pitching market. Or at least that’s what SI’s John Morosi was saying last night.

The object of undying affection? Roy Oswalt, I love thee.

I’m pretty confident that he’d be a good fit in Boston. There’s been some concern about his back issues and posting some rather gaudy career-lows with the Philadelphia Phillies last year, but I’m as bullish on him now as I was back in November when I wrote this about him:

“However, a look at Oswalt month-to-month indicate that the back injury was almost 100% to blame for his drop off. His April and Septembers were fantastic, with him hanging around his normal 7.0 K/9 ratio. During the middle of the season however, nearly all of his pitches had higher contact rates. If only one or two of his pitches had dropped off a cliff, I’d be worried, but it was all of them. Combined with his walk rate – which even in spite of the injury was fairly consistent- would lead me to conclude that his control wasn’t an issue and it was more an issue of stuff. Oswalt has always been an aggressive pitcher, not known for pitching around hitters.  That’s an issue when your stuff isn’t good – and probably explains the spikes. I think it’s fairly safe to say that the back played an enormous role in his mid-season struggles.”

I’m still sticking with that position, too. Everything about Oswalt points to a big bounce back and simply put, there’s nothing that would indicate that a healthy Roy Oswalt was on the decline.

Dave Cameron, who’s a lot smarter than I am, posted a great piece over at Fangraphs on Friday that really took my points a considerable step further. Amidst the deluge of pro-Oswalt propaganda was this Pitch F/x velocity chart which tracks the speed ranges of Oswalt’s fastball:

This kind of information is always important, but in Oswalt’s case, it applies even more.

Oswalt was never known as a fire baller per sae, but he threw plenty hard – around 93-95mph. The kicker was that it had a ton of life, and as a result was able to generate a ton of swings and misses. The old meme is that pitchers build their entire approach on the mound off their fastball – especially at the Major League level, but for Oswalt, that was doubly the case. He throws strikes with his fastball, rarely going outside the zone. Obviously that’s great if you’ve got a great fastball, but when your velocity dips, the wheels fall off pretty quick.

Last year, it was pretty clear – almost right out of Spring Training – that Oswalt wasn’t really himself. His velocity dipped steadily as he approached his June DL stint and at one point, was barely throwing 90mph. Yikes.

Upon his return in August, he was hampered by a gaudy .400+ BABIP, but once that normalized, so did almost all of Roy Oswalt’s numbers. But most importantly, his fastball came back. In fact, he was throwing harder than he had since the beginning of 2010. It seems pretty clear that by all accounts – that Oswalt’s back played a major role in his performance – but especially in his fastball dip. That would lead one to place a sound bet that he returns to his old self this year.

Behold, the magical Roy Oswalt is back!

It’s safe to say this guy is still a really good pitcher. Whoever gets him is getting a potential middle to front of the rotation starter and yes – if he lands for the rumored $8 million a year he’s looking for, the winning bidder would be getting him at a really great price.

All of that is good. I understand, you understand, and I’m sure most of baseball’s brain trust understands that Roy Oswalt is as safe a bet for a major bounce back next year as anyone.

It’s just that assessing a potential Roy Oswalt-to-the-Red Sox deal isn’t exclusive to just analyzing Oswalt’s ability. Yes, there’s a fit. But it doesn’t mean Roy Oswalt feels that way. Heck – it doesn’t mean the Red Sox feel that way.

Simply put, the way the Red Sox are spending this year, I have legit concerns as to whether they’re willing to fork over that $4-$5 million to sign him, that’s assuming they’re willing to dole $4-$5 million out to anyone right now.

After the signings of Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook, the Sox have followed up by talking to Vincente Padilla on a potential minor league deal as well. With Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard hanging around and a potential Dice-K return in June/July, the Red Sox may be content to stand pat.

While it might be hard to comprehend given the team’s strategy of using their resources to overwhelm the competition in recent offseasons – the dollars and cents clearly mean a lot to this team right now. Yes, Roy Oswalt is out there for $8 million, but with the luxury tax kicking in, that $8 million is more like $11.2 million. The Red Sox may elect – heck, they might even be smart – to head into the season with what they’ve got and look to make an addition when better options are out there and available.

And that, of course… is assuming that Roy Oswalt wants to be on the Red Sox. That’s far from a slam-dunk in and of itself.

If you’re Oswalt, and you’re shopping the idea of a pillow contract, it’s be hard to imagine that Fenway Park and the toughest-hitting division in baseball would be high on your list. Especially when there are other options and offers that may mean more money up-front and just as good a chance to win in a better park and less worrisome division. That would be a big reason not to come to Boston.

And other teams – including some who may not be competitive next year – may play on Oswalt. If Oswalt went at the $8 million price tag that’s been bandied about, then you’re looking at paying him $4 million and then shipping him to a contender for prospects. Especially if you’re a club on the precipice of contending, Oswalt is a guy who helps you, but also gives you somewhat of a parachute if things don’t go according to plan.

The problem with markets like this one and players like Oswalt – is that teams who sit around and wait for the market to play out who would otherwise be out on the Winter Meeting spending sprees – tend to randomly jump into the mix on these sorts of players.

So while I’m excited about the idea of signing Oswalt , I’m skeptical this is as easy as proponents are trying to make it out to be. If the Red Sox can get it done – especially on a one-year deal – then more power to them. There’s just a lot that has to line up in order for that to happen.

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Red Sox find a closer: A look at the trade that brought Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox

New Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)

So the Red Sox finally found their closer today, trading Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A’s in exchange for Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. How does this deal look for Boston? At first glance, I’d say ‘good’.

In terms of what we lost:

I’m not really as high on Reddick as some are. I like his power and glove, but his poor plate approach leaves a lot to be desired. I know he wowed the Red Sox faithful last June when he came up, but he came crashing down to earth as his time in the majors went on. He’s had hints of streakiness his entire career, making me wonder whether he’s the every day player people so desperately want him to be. To me, he’s an outfield version of Jed Lowrie’s streaky bat while offering better defense. Long story short – the Sox sold high here.

Miles Head looks like he’s going to be a pretty good first baseman someday, but that someday doesn’t seem to be anytime soon and even if it was it wouldn’t matter because Adrian Gonzalez is chained to both the bag and Fenway Park itself. He, like Lars Anderson, became expendable. Alcantarra’s the scratch ticket here. He’s either a #2/3 starter sometime down the line or a guy who’ll be lucky to sniff AAA. Opinions seem to be all over the map.

Truth be told, the A’s could end up with one or two pretty good players a few years down the line. With their franchise more or less in a holding pattern until they land a new stadium deal, lower level, high ceiling/slightly risky prospects likely have more value for them over the long haul. All in all, the A’s are banking on a ton on upside here, but it seems like a calculated, measured risk.

What did we get?

We got a really good closer who comes with some risks.

Bailey’s detractors would cite his nerve-racking FIP home and road splits, of which there’s almost a full run’s difference the last three years. Some folks chalk that up to him pitching in Oakland and benefitting from pitching in the AL West of which is home to three pitcher’s havens.  It would appear on the surface, that a move to the AL East would be a challenge for him.

The only issue with that is his walk and strike out rates are the two stats most adversely affected by the switch in scenery. Technically, that makes the stadium thing all but moot. For park effects to truly come into play, the ball has to be, well… put in play.

Since the statistical picture looks a bit murky, you can turn to scouting (see, they have an important role, too!) for a logical explanation, one of which I buy: that Bailey pitches more aggressively in Oakland and pounds the strike zone more because he knows a mistake isn’t likely to kill him there. Trying to nibble or be more selective on the road drives him away from his core skill set (throwing fucking hard and challenging hitters) and causes him to put up fatter numbers.

What makes me rest at ease is actually a logical conclusion based off of a combination of what I just mentioned above and more plain statistical common sense. Basically, the home/road splits are born out of paranoia that he won’t succeed in the AL East in more hitter friendly parks – but truth be told, the rest of the parks in his old division are more pitcher-friendly. So obviously, it’s a skill lapse (as opposed to park factors) that are causing him to underperform on the road as opposed to home.  What those are, I don’t know exactly. I do know he had an incomprehensibly high .375 BABIP last year, which means he was horrendously unlucky.

He did give up a lot more hits and extra base hits with runners on base, which could point to some struggles pitching from the stretch, but could also be chalked up to the unusually high BABIP. Basically, I’d expect those numbers to regress to the mean this year and he levels off.

He brings a solid repertoire to the table, with three main pitches – a fastball, curveball and cutter. The fastball is his most potent weapon, and he can spot it as low as 93mph to as high as 97mph. He throws a nice 90-92mph cutter that he can toss for strikes, although he generally relies more on the fastball to get players out. He has a nifty curve that he can get across, but you generally will only see it used earlier in counts to help him get ahead. He’s aggressive against Righties, but generally likes to stay down and away. He takes the same approach to lefties, but is better able to work off of his side of the plate. When he misses, it’s usually when he goes up and away from the batter.

The risk with Bailey isn’t his stuff (which, btw – is pretty impressive) so much as it is his injury history making his stuff the central issue heading forward. In a weird way, I think of Bailey kind of in the same lens as Roy Oswalt last year, who pitched much of the season injured. Oswalt is also known for pitching aggressive and pounding the strike zone. His velocity and stuff allowed him to get a lot of swing and misses in the past, but with the back injury, the control was there, the movement wasn’t and well- he got hit a lot more. While injuries explain Oswalt, they might also serve as a potential warning with Bailey. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and missed part of last year with a sore elbow. It’s not the end of the world on a team with three guys with closing experience, but if the movement of his pitches drops off a bit, he might start getting hit a lot. With a full offseason to get fully healthy though, I’d be willing to take that risk. If he stays in good condition, he’ll be the same elite closer that is a two time All Star and won Rookie of the Year honors in 2009.

The major sticking point here though – is that the Red Sox gained some much needed flexibility with their pitching staff. If I’ve learned anything watching the Epstein/Cherington crew operate, it’s that they value flexibility and adaptability over anything else. Whatever move gives them the most options is usually the one they pursue. Needless to say, this move does that in a big way. They essentially have taken three under developed farm system products (Reddick, Lowrie and Weilland) & two high-risk prospects and spun them into a potential All Star closer and setup man (who also has experience closing) at a killer price and locked up for three years at least. Not too shabby.

Making things more intriguing is the thought of Daniel Bard being moved to the starting rotation. While I’m not sold on this – yet – it does allow the Red Sox some room to experiment. Should Bard start and be adequate, then they’ve essentially doubled his value. If he’s a guy they feel like replacing, they can upgrade at the trade deadline and move Bard back into the pen – taking it from good to scary good. Essentially, this move could be the equivalent of acquiring two pitchers mid season.

Overall – I like this trade considering what the Red Sox have on the table tonight. The focus heading forward will solely be on acquiring a starter and with the money saved not having to ink a big-money closer, they’ll have more resources to play with.

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