Watching Daniel Bard pitch like this is pretty head scratching stuff. I don’t know if anyone imagined him being as bad as he’s been as a starter, even folks like me who were mostly pessimistic about the idea of a conversion from the outset.
This post isn’t so much the answer to the question of what’s wrong with Bard, but I think certain information can help point us in the right direction. A lot of this is thinking out loud, here, so bear with me.
The walks
Lots is being made of his BB/9. That’s obviously an issue, but other pitchers on this team (and around the league) have been able to get away with higher walk rates largely because they can get guys to whiff and strikeout a lot (See: Felix Doubront, Gio Gonzalez).
Bard’s walk rate is up from last year from a 2.96 to a 6.05. That’s staggering. His K/9 ratio is down from a 9.12 last year to a 5.40. That’s more staggering. Part of my initial observations is that it seems like he’s not getting away with his usually high walk rates because he’s not striking guys out anymore. I even haggled a little with Brian MacPherson over at ProJo a bit this afternoon on Twitter, although I had no numbers in front of me to back it up.
Stopped by Sons of Sam Horn tonight and Reverend put this table up in a post with some pretty revealing data that kind of lend some credence to my completely unsubstantiated propaganda this afternoon. Reverend put up a table breaking down Bard’s strike % per pitch in two bins – essentially 2011 Bard pre-September meltdown and 2012 Bard pre-June 3rd meltdown. Some interesting stuff to be sure from guys way smarter than I am.
The numbers back up the ‘he’s walking too many guys, duh’ crowd pretty effectively.
In 2011, he threw strikes 64.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing them 57.6% of the time. His strike % on his changeup is down almost a full 15%. Obviously, his inability to command pitches is a huge part of the problem.
Strikes that suck
What’s scarier though, is when you look at the pitches he’s actually been throwing for strikes. They’re not nearly as effective has they’ve been in the past.
Maybe my eyes weren’t lying.
In 2011, he got hitters to swing at 45.6% of his strikes. 13.1% of his pitches got full-blown whiffs. In 2012, hitters have swung at only 36.63% of his strikes. They’ve only whiffed on 6.26% of said strikes. That’s a 50% decline in swings and misses. Hitters are being more selective with Bard in general. The pitches they’re waiting on, they seem to be hitting a lot more, or at least missing a lot less.
His command’s been awful. There’s no doubt about that. And yes – it’s true that a move back to the bullpen likely gets his velocity back up and reduces the walks he’s handing out – at least a little bit. But the ineffectiveness of his pitches in general has got to be looked at more carefully. While it’s true that he’s a different pitcher when he’s throwing hard – if the issue IS his command – then why hasn’t he been able to get it under control by throwing with less velocity? The problem could be mechanical, but then that’s going to be an issue regardless of whether he’s in the ‘pen or in the rotation.
Again – I’m making no real conclusion/solution here – just thinking out loud.
Mechanics and history suggest this is probably going to get worse
Back in December I wrote this piece commenting a bit on his mechanical issues and his clearly demonstrated fatigue the closer he’s gotten to 80 IP being a serious question that would have to be answered to give us an indication of his long-term viability as a starter.
I basically posed the question that the sides on the Bard conversion boiled down to his mechanics:
I think which side you fall on in the “Bard to the rotation” debate is pretty much going to be determined on how you answer these two questions:
- 1. Are Daniel Bard’s mechanical issues attributed to his conditioning (or lack thereof), and if they are…
- 2. Would better conditioning that comes from being stretched out mitigate the control issues?
In 2009, his numbers blew up in August. In 2010, they blew up in September. In 2011, they blew up in September again. His career wOBAA is .260 through August. In September it skyrockets to a .339 wOBAA. It hits .310 in August, which means that the decline starts right around there –likely somewhere around 55-65 IP. Right now, we’re headed into 55IP territory and he looks awful and seems to be getting worse, with his control completely eluding him. As of tonight, we’re at 55 IP.
Again, that’s not conclusive and it’s not an ‘aha’ moment or anything, but it’s worth noting. He’s struggling more and more with not only his control – but the effectiveness of the pitches he’s throwing for strikes as well. That would suggest that conditioning has nothing to do with mechanics here and we’re looking at a guy who’s just not very dependable past 55 IP. I’ll feel safe(r) making that conclusion (or debunking it, entirely) in a month or so, but I think the writing on the wall is beginning to be pretty apparent.
“Daniel Bard, starting pitcher” worthwhile experiment, but I’m not sure that you can go much further with this, especially when you’ve got a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka performing well in Triple-A.
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