They say you learn from experiences that have happened, but in this case, maybe there's a lesson be learned from one that didn't.
One of the biggest acquisitions of the 2011 trade deadline was SP Doug Fister, who was sent to the Detroit Tigers from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Chance Ruffin. He was the first of two Seattle pitchers to be dealt before July 31st. Red Sox pitcher Erik Bedard was the other.
Since being traded, Fister went 8-1 with the Tigers, posting a 1.79 ERA and came through again last night, leading the Tigers to a 3-2 win over the New York Yankees to clinch a spot in the American League Championship Series.
It sure would have been nice to have a guy like that heading into September. According to ESPN’s Gordon Edes, the Red Sox tried to get him.
According to Edes’ club sources, the Mariners wanted SP Kyle Weiland, OF Ryan Kalish and two lesser prospects to make the deal. Essentially, it’d be the #2 prospect in the system out the door in addition to one of their top 3 pitching prospects. Seems pretty steep, but then again, looking at the numbers Fister put up post-deadline, he might have been worth it.
However, the Red Sox were without the benefit of a lengthy track record on Fister. Pitchers can be hard to peg period, but younger pitchers can be maddening. Sprinkle on top the fact that he was also pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park in the American League and it’s understandable that Theo and co. were a little gun-shy on this one. After all, we’re talking two of the top 4 or 5 MOST Major League-ready prospects in the Sox system. What’s more – is that compared to the Tigers offer, it looks like the Mariners took the right deal. The Tigers offered better players.
Why am I bringing this up? Because I think it might be a preview of the coming offseason. The Red Sox need pitching, but there isn’t much out there. Supply isn’t coming close to meeting the demand. Whatever is left floating around on the market will cost a lot- either by trade or via free agency.
Will the Red Sox have the stomach to write another big check to a free agent starter like – say – CJ Wilson considering their record of face plants with free agent pitching? I’d say no.
So that leaves the trade market. There may be some attractive options out there, but do the Sox have the depth they’ll need in their farm system to allow them to get their guy? And even if they’re willing to part with prospects, there’s no guarantee the other team wants what the Sox have over what another team might offer.
Making matters worse, there’s going to be a ton of competition. The Rangers, Yankees, Braves and Cubs – all big spenders – will also be on the prowl for the same thing. If you thought last year was expensive, you’ve seen nothing yet. This offseason will be brutal – either on the checkbook or the farm system. Take your pick.
I’m not saying people need to deep six the chances of the Red Sox improving their club this offseason. But they need to be prepared for the fact that the holes in this team will be considerably more difficult to plug than in year’s past – and not just for the Red Sox.
No, Doug Fister being traded to the Tigers over the Red Sox doesn’t prove anything. Each trade is different. But it does give us a peak into some of the challenges that may lie ahead.
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