The Doug Fister trade that never was and what it says about the coming offseason challenges for the Red Sox

They say you learn from experiences that have happened, but in this case, maybe there's a lesson be learned from one that didn't.

One of the biggest acquisitions of the 2011 trade deadline was SP Doug Fister, who was sent to the Detroit Tigers from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Chance Ruffin. He was the first of two Seattle pitchers to be dealt before July 31^st. Red Sox pitcher Erik Bedard was the other.

Since being traded, Fister went 8-1 with the Tigers, posting a 1.79 ERA and came through again last night, leading the Tigers to a 3-2 win over the New York Yankees to clinch a spot in the American League Championship Series.

It sure would have been nice to have a guy like that heading into September. According to ESPN’s Gordon Edes, the Red Sox tried to get him.

According to Edes’ club sources, the Mariners wanted SP Kyle Weiland, OF Ryan Kalish and two lesser prospects to make the deal. Essentially, it’d be the #2 prospect in the system out the door in addition to one of their top 3 pitching prospects. Seems pretty steep, but then again, looking at the numbers Fister put up post-deadline, he might have been worth it.

However, the Red Sox were without the benefit of a lengthy track record on Fister. Pitchers can be hard to peg period, but younger pitchers can be maddening. Sprinkle on top the fact that he was also pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park in the American League and it’s understandable that Theo and co. were a little gun-shy on this one. After all, we’re talking two of the top 4 or 5 MOST Major League-ready prospects in the Sox system. What’s more – is that compared to the Tigers offer, it looks like the Mariners took the right deal. The Tigers offered better players.

Why am I bringing this up? Because I think it might be a preview of the coming offseason. The Red Sox need pitching, but there isn’t much out there. Supply isn’t coming close to meeting the demand. Whatever is left floating around on the market will cost a lot- either by trade or via free agency.

Will the Red Sox have the stomach to write another big check to a free agent starter like – say – CJ Wilson considering their record of face plants with free agent pitching? I’d say no.

So that leaves the trade market. There may be some attractive options out there, but do the Sox have the depth they’ll need in their farm system to allow them to get their guy? And even if they’re willing to part with prospects, there’s no guarantee the other team wants what the Sox have over what another team might offer.

Making matters worse, there’s going to be a ton of competition. The Rangers, Yankees, Braves and Cubs – all big spenders – will also be on the prowl for the same thing. If you thought last year was expensive, you’ve seen nothing yet. This offseason will be brutal – either on the checkbook or the farm system. Take your pick.

I’m not saying people need to deep six the chances of the Red Sox improving their club this offseason. But they need to be prepared for the fact that the holes in this team will be considerably more difficult to plug than in year’s past – and not just for the Red Sox.

No, Doug Fister being traded to the Tigers over the Red Sox doesn’t prove anything. Each trade is different. But it does give us a peak into some of the challenges that may lie ahead.

Read Full Post »

Incoherent MLB layoff musings and random rambling

Before Red Sox fans head for life rafts like rich people on the Titanic, maybe it’s worth taking an aside to point out that um – the Yankees aren’t playing particularly well, either.

Despite Boston’s seeming implosion over the past few weeks, the Yankees are still only up 3.5 games as of today. They’ve lost 6 of their last 9 games and perhaps most worrisome – the man they need to have pitch well – CC Sabathia – isn’t.

Sabathia was terrible in August, sporting a 4.68 ERA in 42.1 IP and has a WHIP over his past 6 starts sitting over 1.60. He gave up 50 hits in August and is well on the way to eclipsing that this month – nearly 12 more hits than he’s given up in any other month in the season.

Wallace Matthew of ESPN.com speculates whether the new six-man rotation the Yankees have employed is to blame and maybe he’s onto something:

“Sabathia worked on four days’ rest in 16 of his first 22 starts. The results were a 14-5 record and a 2.62 ERA. Since then, the numbers are 5-3 and 3.89. More alarmingly, he has allowed 81 hits in 69 1/3 innings, an average of 10.5 hits per nine innings pitched. “

But at the end of the day, it’s neither here nor there. The Yankees lack of pitching depth appears to be catching up to them. Needless to say, it’s the same song we’ve been hearing in Boston for a little while now.

The reality is that while the Red Sox and Yankees have really good teams, they also have some big holes. While it’s hard to decipher through the media maelstrom whether or not the Sox and Yanks have bigger holes than the other contending teams, I think it could be reasonably concluded that the other contenders closed the gap considerably, if not surpassed the AL East monsters at the trade deadline.

I’d even go as far as to say that I don’t think either team is the best in baseball. In fact, they might not even be the best teams in the AL right now.

Playoff lore is littered with teams that seem to find their groove at the right time, and if that’s any indication of what the future might hold, then maybe we should all be wary of the Detroit Tigers, who have torn through the second half of the season and – if the standings hold through to the end of the season – will face the Sox in the Divisional Series.

Justin Verlander is a man among boys, which we knew already. What we didn’t know is that Doug Fister would turn out to be one of this season’s best acquisitions. Since being traded to the Tigers in July, Fister’s gone 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and even recorded a 13-strikeout game against the Cleveland Indians. He was having a good year under the radar in Seattle already, but I don’t even know if even Doug Fister’s mom would have seen this coming. All of a sudden, the Tigers look like a tough match up for anyone.

The Rangers are doing what they do – hit lots and lots of baseballs and pitch well enough to make you tread with caution, but also speculate what the world would be like with a dominant pitcher or two in their rotation. With nothing reasonably priced out on the trade market, they decided to substantially beef up the bullpen adding dominant middle relief arms Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to go along with the already potent Neftali Feliz, Darren O’Day and Darren Oliver. Beefy bullpens can lead to big Octobers. Could the Rangers be the team to beat in the AL once again this year?

The real eye-opener for me this year however, is the depth of the National League field. For the first time in forever, I feel like the two most balanced teams heading into the playoffs are both NL ball clubs. The Milwaukee Brewers already have as potent a middle of the order as there is in baseball with Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. They’ve fielded a balanced starting rotation and added depth to their bullpen by acquiring Fransisco Rodriguez from the Mets in June. Since then, they’ve run away from a seemingly competitive NL Central pack and have turned the race into a virtual cakewalk.

Not to be outdone, the Phillies went out and finally got that bat they needed, adding Hunter Pence at the deadline. While they might have a few holes here and there in the ‘pen, it might not really matter as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will certainly drive them deep enough into ballgames where it might not matter too much.

I’m not ready to jump on the Diamondbacks bandwagon yet, but I wasn’t ready to ride along with the Rockies in 2007, the Rays in 2008 and the Giants in 2010 and well, look where that got me. The Braves are lurking in the shadows as well. The Braves probably have the best bullpen in the field and solid starting pitching, but it remains to be seen whether this team can put up the runs they need to on a consistent basis.

In years past, it’s been kind of easy to distinguish between the real contenders and the pretenders. This year seems to be a lot more ambiguous and that the gap seems to have been substantially leveled – especially due to some shrewd moves at the deadline by the Brewers, Phillies and Tigers.

There’s a lot more balance this year and that’s good for baseball, but not for the Red Sox and Yankees, who may find themselves both being bounced earlier than anticipated.

Read Full Post »

How August and waiver trades work

Sometimes, some real gems occur once the non-waiver trade deadline passes

OK, so the non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, but teams are still eligible to make trades, but Waivers needs to be used in order to do it. Because this stuff is pretty complicated, I figured that there’s no point in re-inventing the wheel. MLB Trade Rumors always puts up a post for folks to read (the original of which can be read here) that breaks it down as good as anyone. Cot’s Baseball contracts and Jayson Stark were heavily used in the production of their original article.

The Rules:

• Teams have to pass players through revocable waivers to trade them after the July 31st deadline.
• Players acquired after August 31st can’t play in the postseason.
• Teams will often put most of their players on waivers to determine interest, since they don’t have to give up every player who’s claimed.
• Unclaimed players can be traded to any club in August (or even September).
• Teams don’t have to trade players who are claimed. They can hand the player and his salary over for nothing.
• If a team places a player on waivers after he is claimed, but not traded, the team loses the right to pull its player back. In other words, the waivers are revocable at first, but not revocable afterwards.
• Clubs have two days to deal claimed players, but they can only negotiate a trade with one team.
• If only one team claims a player, he can only be dealt to that team.
• If more than one team claims a player, he can only be traded to the team in his league with the worst record.
• If a player’s only claimed by teams in the other league, he can only be dealt to the team with the worst record.
• Teams cannot pass players on the disabled list through waivers.

What it’s primarily used for:

Most teams like to use the waiver trade deadline to add depth and bench players. In the past, the Red Sox have added names like Mark Kotsay, Billy Wagner and others. Occasionally, you’ll find some pretty interesting deals. Perhaps the most notable last year, was the White Sox’s acquisition of Manny Ramirez from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Perhaps the most interesting was a 1987 deal that sent Sp Doyle Alexander to the Tigers from the Braves in 1987. Alexander was stellar for the Tigers down the stretch, enabling them to out-muscle the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East Division championship. Who did the Tigers give up in the deal? A floundering prospect by the name of John Smoltz.

The biggest waiver wire move for the Red Sox? Probably their 1986 acquisition of Dave Henderson. Down to their last out in game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, Henderson would hit a blast to left center field that would help propel the Red Sox to a come from behind win and eventually the AL Pennant.

Read Full Post »