Felix Doubront is for real

It was kind of dumb to forget about this guy. (Credit: Elsa/Getty Images North America)

Sometimes I wonder what made everyone forget about Felix Doubront.

Well, maybe I shouldn’t say that. I’ve got a good idea why, but I’m still wondering how he fell as off the radar as he did.

Doubront was signed as an international free agent in 2004 – a time where the Red Sox farm system was getting flooded with premium talent. Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson would all be drafted within two years of Doubront’s arrival.

It wasn’t that Doubront was ever really a bad prospect; it’s just that he wasn’t ever a ‘can’t miss’ prospect. In fact, from the get-go, most thought he had the goods to get to the Major Leagues. Early in his Minor League career, most scouts had him projected as a middle to back-end of the rotation starter. However, as his development wore on, people in the organization began to notice a lot of obvious shortcomings – especially his focus on the mound.

At the Double A and Triple A levels, Doubront became a pitcher more or less notorious for throwing a few good innings and then falling off the tracks somewhere around his fourth or fifth inning of work. His mechanics would go, his concentration, location – all of it. The Red Sox began to question whether or not he’d ever pan out as a starter and began using him in relief roles more frequently, causing many to speculate whether he’d become anything more than a reliable 7th inning arm out of the bullpen.

With expectations lowering and more sexy, intriguing players like Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Bard, Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish emerging as top farm talent, Doubront more or less went back to being lost in the mix. To put the cherry on top, a 2011 shoulder strain threw his whole season off, leaving him as a guy who seemed destined to be someone remembered as a capable talent who’d have an unspectacular big league career and then likely fade into obscurity.

The funny thing about the Red Sox farm system since 2003 is that almost everyone we’ve brought up has been a star, or close to it. Dustin Pedroia – who was drafted in the same year Doubront signed, is a five-year veteran, with a nice, shiny AL MVP award sitting on his mantle piece. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon have been arguably two of the best players at their respective positions since 2007. Jon Lester and Justin Masterson emerged as reliable front-end of the rotation pitchers. Each one of those players tore through the Minor Leagues with the possible offshoot of skewing fans’ perceptions of player development along the way.

Doubront, on the other hand, developed the way most players do. He dominated the lower levels of the minors before hitting some snags at both the Double and Triple-A levels. He grew into both levels quickly and usually found himself promoted once a year. He got his first whiff of Major League action as a reliever in 2010 and even got a longer stint out of the ‘pen last year. It’s not the sexy way to come up, but there’s also nothing wrong with it, either. Dare we say that Doubront’s climb was normal.

Doubront merely needed what most young players like him needed – a chance to play and prove himself. Finally, that opportunity presented itself this year.

With a blown-out back-end of the rotation and little money to spend, the Red Sox decided to spend the offseason hedging their bets on a random assortment of orts and other miscellaneous waste- ranging from dumpster dives, out of options prospects and reclamation projects. With no one really noticing, Doubront was one of the many invited to camp with the chance to make the starting rotation.

He reported to Spring Training in great shape and with much of the attention focused on Daniel Bard’s conversion from a reliever to a starter and the endless character analysis of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, Doubront quietly impressed many behind the scenes and emerged as a surprise winner of the final spot in the starting rotation.

Since then, his numbers haven’t just been good – he’s been the best pitcher on the team. He’s sporting a 3.54 SIERA and a rotation-high 9.48 K/9. People are finally beginning to take notice, especially after his whitewashing of the vaunted Detroit Tigers lineup the other night, an effort that included two incredible strikeouts of Miguel Cabrera.

Praise was instant and over-the-top, of course. NESN even went as far as to speculate whether Doubront was Cy Young material. While it’s probably too early to be making those kinds of proclamations, one thing should be abundantly clear: Felix Doubront is a mature, capable and talented Major League starting pitcher.

While there hasn’t been much criticism levied his way, there has been a lot made out of Doubront’s apparent lack of efficiency with his pitches. While his pitch counts do tend to climb quickly, that’s not really due to a lack of control so much as his pitch selection. While Doubront is capable of dialing up a mid-90’s fastball, it’s his off-speed stuff he often depends on to get outs. He has a Change-up that drops off the table and a looping 12-6 curve that’s developed into one of his best swing and miss pitches in his arsenal. He lives in the extreme bottom of the strike zone while throwing his fastball and the occasional cutter further up, so his missing the zone more frequently than others shouldn’t really come as a surprise. I just so happens to be where he likes to live.

Everything he’s throwing into the zone is being swung at, missed and hit at career averages. His swings and misses outside the zone have gone up nearly 5%, but with a high walk rate, it’s not like hitters aren’t already expecting it or aren’t laying off his pitches. The development of his curve ball into a plus pitch – I think – is what’s led to the increase in whiffs.

It’s also become very apparent that he’s confident in his stuff. He’s not throwing pitches tailing out of the zone because he’s afraid of getting hit, but rather that’s where he likes to throw the ball. His willingness to sacrifice a walk for a few added strikeouts is evident in the parallels between his k/9 and BB/9 throughout his minor league career. As his strikeout rate has risen, so has his walk rate. Doubront seems to be confident that he can get hitters to chase more than he can get them to take his pitches. So far, the strategy is working.

In terms of how he’s approached hitters, not much has changed. He’s pitching at the same pace and using almost exactly the same mix. He’s employed his curveball more in recent years and throws almost an identical amount of changeups. While he pulls the cutter out of the bag only about 9% of the time, he likes to use it to nip at the corners a bit and gives him a slightly more versatile pitch to change hitters’ eye level with.

Most telling might be the total absence of luck in his performance. His LOB% is sitting at 73.3% – a tick over the magic, dead center 72.2%. His BABIP is .303. His HR/FB% is a bit above 12%, which would suggest he might be unlucky.

With no signs of luck to point to regression, the increase in velocity, and the consistency in his approach – it appears that this is most certainly not a fluke. Ladies and gentleman, meet Felix Doubront.

While his path to success hasn’t been the most glamorous, there’s no doubt that the Red Sox have cultivated one of the most prized assets in baseball- young, cost-controlled, talented, left-handed starting pitching.

Is he for real? I’d most definitely say yes.

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Red Sox find a closer: A look at the trade that brought Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox

New Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)

So the Red Sox finally found their closer today, trading Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A’s in exchange for Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. How does this deal look for Boston? At first glance, I’d say ‘good’.

In terms of what we lost:

I’m not really as high on Reddick as some are. I like his power and glove, but his poor plate approach leaves a lot to be desired. I know he wowed the Red Sox faithful last June when he came up, but he came crashing down to earth as his time in the majors went on. He’s had hints of streakiness his entire career, making me wonder whether he’s the every day player people so desperately want him to be. To me, he’s an outfield version of Jed Lowrie’s streaky bat while offering better defense. Long story short – the Sox sold high here.

Miles Head looks like he’s going to be a pretty good first baseman someday, but that someday doesn’t seem to be anytime soon and even if it was it wouldn’t matter because Adrian Gonzalez is chained to both the bag and Fenway Park itself. He, like Lars Anderson, became expendable. Alcantarra’s the scratch ticket here. He’s either a #2/3 starter sometime down the line or a guy who’ll be lucky to sniff AAA. Opinions seem to be all over the map.

Truth be told, the A’s could end up with one or two pretty good players a few years down the line. With their franchise more or less in a holding pattern until they land a new stadium deal, lower level, high ceiling/slightly risky prospects likely have more value for them over the long haul. All in all, the A’s are banking on a ton on upside here, but it seems like a calculated, measured risk.

What did we get?

We got a really good closer who comes with some risks.

Bailey’s detractors would cite his nerve-racking FIP home and road splits, of which there’s almost a full run’s difference the last three years. Some folks chalk that up to him pitching in Oakland and benefitting from pitching in the AL West of which is home to three pitcher’s havens.  It would appear on the surface, that a move to the AL East would be a challenge for him.

The only issue with that is his walk and strike out rates are the two stats most adversely affected by the switch in scenery. Technically, that makes the stadium thing all but moot. For park effects to truly come into play, the ball has to be, well… put in play.

Since the statistical picture looks a bit murky, you can turn to scouting (see, they have an important role, too!) for a logical explanation, one of which I buy: that Bailey pitches more aggressively in Oakland and pounds the strike zone more because he knows a mistake isn’t likely to kill him there. Trying to nibble or be more selective on the road drives him away from his core skill set (throwing fucking hard and challenging hitters) and causes him to put up fatter numbers.

What makes me rest at ease is actually a logical conclusion based off of a combination of what I just mentioned above and more plain statistical common sense. Basically, the home/road splits are born out of paranoia that he won’t succeed in the AL East in more hitter friendly parks – but truth be told, the rest of the parks in his old division are more pitcher-friendly. So obviously, it’s a skill lapse (as opposed to park factors) that are causing him to underperform on the road as opposed to home.  What those are, I don’t know exactly. I do know he had an incomprehensibly high .375 BABIP last year, which means he was horrendously unlucky.

He did give up a lot more hits and extra base hits with runners on base, which could point to some struggles pitching from the stretch, but could also be chalked up to the unusually high BABIP. Basically, I’d expect those numbers to regress to the mean this year and he levels off.

He brings a solid repertoire to the table, with three main pitches – a fastball, curveball and cutter. The fastball is his most potent weapon, and he can spot it as low as 93mph to as high as 97mph. He throws a nice 90-92mph cutter that he can toss for strikes, although he generally relies more on the fastball to get players out. He has a nifty curve that he can get across, but you generally will only see it used earlier in counts to help him get ahead. He’s aggressive against Righties, but generally likes to stay down and away. He takes the same approach to lefties, but is better able to work off of his side of the plate. When he misses, it’s usually when he goes up and away from the batter.

The risk with Bailey isn’t his stuff (which, btw – is pretty impressive) so much as it is his injury history making his stuff the central issue heading forward. In a weird way, I think of Bailey kind of in the same lens as Roy Oswalt last year, who pitched much of the season injured. Oswalt is also known for pitching aggressive and pounding the strike zone. His velocity and stuff allowed him to get a lot of swing and misses in the past, but with the back injury, the control was there, the movement wasn’t and well- he got hit a lot more. While injuries explain Oswalt, they might also serve as a potential warning with Bailey. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and missed part of last year with a sore elbow. It’s not the end of the world on a team with three guys with closing experience, but if the movement of his pitches drops off a bit, he might start getting hit a lot. With a full offseason to get fully healthy though, I’d be willing to take that risk. If he stays in good condition, he’ll be the same elite closer that is a two time All Star and won Rookie of the Year honors in 2009.

The major sticking point here though – is that the Red Sox gained some much needed flexibility with their pitching staff. If I’ve learned anything watching the Epstein/Cherington crew operate, it’s that they value flexibility and adaptability over anything else. Whatever move gives them the most options is usually the one they pursue. Needless to say, this move does that in a big way. They essentially have taken three under developed farm system products (Reddick, Lowrie and Weilland) & two high-risk prospects and spun them into a potential All Star closer and setup man (who also has experience closing) at a killer price and locked up for three years at least. Not too shabby.

Making things more intriguing is the thought of Daniel Bard being moved to the starting rotation. While I’m not sold on this – yet – it does allow the Red Sox some room to experiment. Should Bard start and be adequate, then they’ve essentially doubled his value. If he’s a guy they feel like replacing, they can upgrade at the trade deadline and move Bard back into the pen – taking it from good to scary good. Essentially, this move could be the equivalent of acquiring two pitchers mid season.

Overall – I like this trade considering what the Red Sox have on the table tonight. The focus heading forward will solely be on acquiring a starter and with the money saved not having to ink a big-money closer, they’ll have more resources to play with.

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Red Sox have unspectacular, but successful Winter Meetings.

Ben Cherington has a lot to think about after an exploratory winter meetings (Photo Credit: Comcast Sports)

While it wasn’t the most exciting week to be a Red Sox fan, it’s hard to look at GM Ben Cherington’s first winter meetings as anything less (or more) than a mild success. The Red Sox are in a better, more focused position heading out of the baseball’s annual free agent/trade suare, and were able to accomplish a few positive things on the to do list, including:

• Bringing David Ortiz back
• A completed lineup that allows the Red Sox to focus on starting pitching exclusively for the remainder of the offseason
• A near-full coaching staff with only the pitching coach position to be filled
• Several doors open to address SP needs with names such as Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jonathon Niese involved.
• A more ideal position in the closer’s market with a strong selection of options and a more favorable negotiating position.
• Knowing that the Yankees aren’t any better now then when they walked into the meetings.

There were also some not-so-great developments to take away from the week as well. The Los Angeles Angels got a lot better, adding the best hitter (Albert Pujols) and pitcher (C.J. Wilson) to their roster. They’ll certainly be a player next year in an already competitive American League. The Blue Jays solved their closer issue and the Mariners seemed poised to make a big move or two that could thrust them back into the periffery of contention as well.

Still, all things considered, the Red Sox are in a better place today then they were on Monday, which is the whole point. Here’s a full recap of the week’s activity:

Lineup

By the time the week was over, it seemed as if the Red Sox were content with their starting lineup, especially after news that David Ortiz would accept arbitration on Wednesday. The two parties couldn’t reach an agreement on a multi-year deal, with there being about a $7 million difference between Ortiz and the Red Sox in spite of weeks of negotiations. The Red Sox upped their offer Wednesday night, but it wasn’t enough to get Papi to sign on the dotted line. Instead, Ortiz opted to accept the Red Sox offer of arbitration, which all but guarantees him a raise from his $12.5 million salary in 2011. The deal works for both sides as Papi will get more money short-term while giving up security and the Red Sox gaining more security despite the pay raise.

Luckily for the Red Sox, there wasn’t much of a market for Ortiz. The Orioles and Blue Jays were both rumored to be interested but declined interest publicly and never presented the 36-year old slugger with an official offer. Still, the Red Sox did their due diligence to start the conversation on some potential insurance policies kicking tires on Laynce Nix, Josh Willingham, Carlos Quentin and Michael Cuddyer as potential pieces should David Ortiz sign elsewhere or decline arbitration. Carlos Beltran had long been considered a potential target for the Red Sox had Ortiz not resigned, as he’d have served a dual purpose as a part time RFer and DH, but the Sox never expressed much interest.

In other bat-related news, it looks as if Ryan Lavarnway will be splitting DH and Catching duties full time with the Red Sox as Cherington gave a strong indication that the Sox weren’t interested in bringing back Team Captain Jason Varitek for another season. The Red Sox may add a right handed OF bat to compliment the winner of the Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick competition at Spring Training, but by all accounts, the team seems set offensively. Some fans might be a bit underwhelmed by the lack of a big move, but truth be told it’s hard to upgrade the best offense in the AL.

Starting pitching

The biggest issue facing the Red Sox heading into the Winter meetings was how they were going to approach building their starting rotation. While we know more now than we knew on Monday, the problem still exists. Still, the perceived lack of progress wasn’t for a lack of activity.

By all indications, the Red Sox won’t be entering the high-priced free agent frakis. The Red Sox did their due diligence and checked in on both C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle, but never made an official offer to either. Jim Bowden at ESPN seems to think the Red Sox are lurking with regards to Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish, but management gave mixed signals on Wednesday, with Cherington seemingly cold to the idea, citing the existing level of financial commitment to the starting rotation as his reason. Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino didn’t rule out the possibility though, saying that he’d leave that decision up to Cherington. Roy Oswalt is probably be best available option out on the free agent market, although it might be former Dodgers hurler Hiroki Kuroda who interests the Sox the most.

On the trade front, the Red Sox opened a lot of doors, but didn’t walk through any of them. Over the course of the week, the Sox talked about Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jonathan Niese with their respective teams, but like the arch rival Yankees, found the asking price on all of them to be astronomical. The A’s and General Manager Billy Beane are looking for a “Dan Haren-like haul” for Gonzalez. If you’ll remember, Haren was traded prior to the 2008 season as the Diamondbacks parted with Carlos Gonzalez (later part of the deal that sent Matt Holiday to Oakland), Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Chris Carter. It’s safe to say neither the Sox nor the Yankees would be terribly comfortable doing that, much less having the pieces in place to get such a deal done. White Sox GM Kenny Williams’ price for John Danks is rumored to be just as high, although the market for Gavin Floyd is uncertain. Mets hurler Jonathan Niese is a fairly well regarded prospect who could be a potential fit depending on what direction the Mets want to go.

With an expensive free agent and trade market for starting pitchers looming, Cherington seems resigned to be on the lookout for bargains as the winter progresses. The team may also look internally as both Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves have been told to report to spring training stretched out and ready to start. Whether the Red Sox decide to do that or not could have serious implications for their relief corps, as that would mean the Red Sox would essentially lose their three most effective weapons out of the bullpen from last year. While it doesn’t seem like an optimal solution, it’s certainly on the table and being considered. Cherington also didn’t indicate that he was very warm to the idea of bringing Red Sox stalwart Tim Wakefield back into the fold. Andrew Miller was signed to a one year, at a shade over a million dollars.

Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen was the focus of much of the chatter surrounding the team over the course of the week, and the deals that came closest to getting done seemed to be related to towards bolstering their relief.

The issue of who’s going to close for the team seems to be heading in the direction of an external solution. By all measures, the Red Sox have played the closer’s market well. With former closer Jonathan Papelbon inking a 4 year, $50 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the price of closers appeared to skyrocket. Because of the sudden spike in the market the Red Sox and others decided to wait for some pieces to fall and prices to normalize. All things considered, it appears as if it’s done just that.

The Sox seem to have their eye on four potential pieces right now – Free agents Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson and incumbent A’s closer Andrew Bailey. The Red Sox had spoken with free agent Heath Bell and the Rockies about a potential trade that would have brought Huston Street to Boston, but nothing really materialized out of either of those discussions. The Red Sox appear to be most interested in Madson and Bailey who are probably the two best options left on the market. Both will come with a cost – Madson with years and dollars and Bailey with prospects/players, but are both quality players.

As for what it’ll take to acquire one of the two, we can make some educated guesses. I’m ASSUMING a deal with Madson would probably be in the 2-3 year range and in the neighborhood of $23-$27 million. There are, however, two red flags with Madson – the first being that he doesn’t have an extensive track record closing and the second being that he’s a Scott Boras client. There is a possibility that perhaps Boras would go for a 1 year, high dollar value deal for Madson, much like the ‘pillow contract’ that the Sox dolled out to 2B Adrian Beltre before the 2010 season.

Bailey will require a trade, of which some of the parameters have been tossed around publicly by reporters already. The first package bandied about would require the Red Sox to part with Right Fielder Josh Reddick and prospects. The second proposal involved several prospects further down the Red Sox system – with Lars Anderson, Raul Alcantara and Brandon Workman coming up as the rumored pieces. The A’s and Red Sox match up well for a trade. The A’s are in a holding pattern until a new stadium deal in Oakland is worked out or a potential relocation to San Jose. In light of that, the A’s would likely have more interest than most teams in some of the Red Sox A and AA prospects – the area of the Sox farm system that currently has the most talent. The A’s aren’t looking for immediate return and instead are focused on long-term value. Considering things from that perspective, the Sox system may be able to meet that need. With the closers market mostly limited to just the Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds right now, it looks like the Red Sox could be the only deal in town. Bailey is a former American League rookie of the year.

In terms of filling out the pen, the Red Sox also began the process of scoping out the marketplace. The Sox were connected to the Darren Oliver talks earlier in the week, but nothing was mentioned other than expressed interest. The team also talked with the Texas Rangers about a mutually beneficial trade that would involve sending utility infielder Jed Lowrie to the Rangers in exchange for Mark Lowe or Koji Uehara.

The Red Sox did make some depth moves during the winter meetings, singing Jesse Carlson to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training as well as acquiring Astros AAA-reliever Marco Duarte via trade during the Rule-5 draft.

Other news and notes

Bobby Valentine was wearing his full media charm all week, expressing hatred for the Yankees, mocking a lineup question and while he was at it – keeping us in the loop about the formation of his coaching staff. While it was announced that former bench coach DeMarlo Hale will be leaving for Baltimore, the Red Sox will be bringing back Tim Bogar, Dave Magadan and Gary Tuck. Bill Buckner’s name has been tossed around as a potential bench coach, although reports seemed to indicate that the organization wasn’t overwhelmed with excitement about the idea.

The one spot on staff that has yet to be filled is the pitching coach position. Valentine expressed a desire to name a coach sooner rather than later, and it seems the process is in full swing. The Sox interviewed Josh Beckett’s former Marlins pitching coach Brad Arnsberg on Wednesday. David Cone is another interesting name being discussed although Cone has more or less dismissed the idea.

In other news, Louis Tiant won’t be elected to the Hall of Fame this time, with Cubs great Ron Santo getting the nod from the Veterans Committee. And shockingly, the Red Sox and Cubs have yet to work out compensation for Theo Epstein. Shocker there.

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