I love trash picking.
So I guess it’s time I got off my can and finally write something again… but I’ll be honest, it’s taken me a few weeks to figure out what to write about… and even with all that time, I’ve failed miserably. So here’s some random stuff for you to chew on:
Marco Scutaro traded to the Rockies for some guy – I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but anyone who thought we were seriously going to get anything of note in return for an out and out salary dump of a 36 year old Shortstop with declining defensive value this late in the offseason has got to be smoking something. While Nick Punto and Mike Aviles are not a perfect platoon – they should do just fine. Punto’s patience and defense should compliment the ‘good enough’ bat of Aviles nicely. Let’s not forget, Aviles has been a pretty solid player when he’s had the opportunity to play full time, hitting .300 in each season and posting a completely acceptable .833 and .748 OPS in those seasons, respectively. Interestingly enough, Bill James has him projected at a .734 OPS next year which would put him a point above last year’s AL average for OPS among shortstops with a min. of 400 plate appearances (.733).
The story here though, is still the salary dump – which is a sound one. A lot of people had discussed the idea of trading Kevin Youkilis, but considering his age and recent injury history, the Red Sox would have been trading him when his value was low. Sure, you could make the case that bringing David Ortiz back was a mistake, but considering he’s a far more productive offensive player than Scutaro, that wasn’t likely to happen. Scutaro was the one guy they could move who would both save the Red Sox money and hurt them the least in terms of lost production. It’s safe to say a healthy Kevin Youkilis, re-wired Carl Crawford or a good-to-go Adrian Gonzalez make up for that lack of production rather quickly. Defensively, the move is a wash.
Financially, the move makes even more sense as WEEI’s Alex Speier pointed out a few weeks ago. In addition to saving on Scutaro’s salary, the team didn’t have to pay a $1.5 million buy-out on his option year. All in all, the move saved them $7.5 million dollars – of which gives them more flexibility heading forward to make upgrades elsewhere on their roster.
Nice to see we got Mike Lowell to play right field – When you take an honest look at the RF platoon of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, it should surprise you how much of an upgrade these two are over the Drew/Reddick sinkhole from last year.
- Sweeney is a career .296/.352/.402 hitter against righties with a .754 career OPS.
- Ross is a career .282/.349/.563 hitter against lefties with a .912 career OPS.
- Both are pretty good defenders.
Between the two, that gives you a starting Right Fielder with a career line of .282/.350/.482 and a career .833 OPS. Just to give you an idea of what that kind of production is like – consider Mike Lowell’s .279/.342/.414 line with a career .805 OPS. Obviously, it’d be nice to have one player capable of putting up those kinds of numbers, but it’s not like there’s a shortage of corner outfielders in Major League Baseball should the Red Sox elect to upgrade later on this year. We should be fine.
People need to chill on this pitching thing- The Red Sox are in the market for a #4 starter and a #5 starter. They don’t need Roger Clemens. As is – they may not need anything else at all. Considering John Lackey was historically bad last year, it’s almost inconceivable that even if Daniel Bard falters in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation that he’ll be as bad as Lackey was in 2011. Provided Bard can make it 150 innings (that remains to be seen), he’s already an upgrade. It’s nearly impossible to fathom that the Red Sox don’t hit on one of Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Alfredo Aceves, Justin Germano and John Maine – or – at least hit enough to ferry us to a returning Dice-K or a trade candidate in June/July. All things considered, while I’m not entirely sold on the idea of this team heading into the year with question marks at the back end of the rotation, I am OK with it.
Simply put, the pitching market is awful right now. There’s no need to get overcommitted or make a bad deal because everyone’s making a lot of noise. In fact, waiting might be the best policy. There might be a better player available later on this season at a better cost. With the Red Sox at that point likely having the cash to fit said player, an improved post-draft bargaining position and a whole heck of a lot of motivation to make a big splash, biding time and letting the market spin itself into the ground has it’s benefits.
The flip side of that argument is that it appears the Red Sox have some options available should they choose to explore them. They have a good shot to land Edwin Jackson, not much of a shot to get Roy Oswalt and if they’re desperate, they can pull down their pants and take a shot from Kenny Williams and get Gavin Floyd. Still, the need isn’t compelling enough for the Red Sox to bum-rush the market and make a deal on anything other than their terms. After all, these pitchers are still shuffling through the market for a reason: there isn’t a robust market for any of them.
While the Red Sox do hold the chips in this situation, it’s still going to be a challenge to convince a free agent to come to Boston on a one-year deal and well below his asking price. If the point of a pillow deal is to build value by padding stats, the American League East isn’t exactly high on the list of desirable destinations. If they can pull it off though, they may find themselves finding the best possible value in a challenging market and in turn – convert their rotation from a question mark, to an unquestionable strength.
Edwin Jackson – in particular – would be a huge steal – Jackson’s 3.55 FIP in 2011 was better than Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Gio Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson and Wandy Rodriguez. His xFIP was better than Floyd, Matt Cain, Daniel Hudson, Danks, Jered Weaver, Marcum, Billingsley, Buehrle and Hellickson. Considering nearly all of those guys are paid a lot more than $5-6 million a year and/or cost a small country to acquire this offseason, the Red Sox might be getting the best value on the market. Should the Red Sox somehow be able to convince him to take short money and a one-year deal, then their policy of patience should be given it’s proper due.
Which makes it all the more ridiculous that some people are calling this the worst Red Sox offseason in history. In fact, there’s a chance it could be one of their best – Should the Red Sox sign Jackson, they’ll have addressed nearly every major issue the team had in September at the cost of about $12 million dollars. They’ll have upgraded their rotation, added considerable low-risk pitching depth, maintained their bullpen and may have managed to upgrade their lineup and defense. In the process, they will have avoided risky, long-term contracts and along the way, found some pretty cool guys to liven and lighten up a tight, tenuous clubhouse atmosphere. Sprinkle on top what’s sure to be a competitive atmosphere in Spring Training and there’s a very good shot that this team heads into the season a far more stable, balanced unit then what we sent to camp in 2011.
Tune out the noise. In an offseason where so much is riding on precision and careful, calculated risks, the Red Sox may have scored a direct hit.
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