Tuning out the noise around the Red Sox offseason

 

I love trash picking.

So I guess it’s time I got off my can and finally write something again… but I’ll be honest, it’s taken me a few weeks to figure out what to write about… and even with all that time, I’ve failed miserably. So here’s some random stuff for you to chew on:

Marco Scutaro traded to the Rockies for some guy – I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but anyone who thought we were seriously going to get anything of note in return for an out and out salary dump of a 36 year old Shortstop with declining defensive value this late in the offseason has got to be smoking something. While Nick Punto and Mike Aviles are not a perfect platoon – they should do just fine. Punto’s patience and defense should compliment the ‘good enough’ bat of Aviles nicely. Let’s not forget, Aviles has been a pretty solid player when he’s had the opportunity to play full time, hitting .300 in each season and posting a completely acceptable .833 and .748 OPS in those seasons, respectively. Interestingly enough, Bill James has him projected at a .734 OPS next year which would put him a point above last year’s AL average for OPS  among shortstops with a min. of 400 plate appearances (.733).

The story here though, is still the salary dump – which is a sound one. A lot of people had discussed the idea of trading Kevin Youkilis, but considering his age and recent injury history, the Red Sox would have been trading him when his value was low. Sure, you could make the case that bringing David Ortiz back was a mistake, but considering he’s a far more productive offensive player than Scutaro, that wasn’t likely to happen. Scutaro was the one guy they could move who would both save the Red Sox money and hurt them the least in terms of lost production. It’s safe to say a healthy Kevin Youkilis, re-wired Carl Crawford or a good-to-go Adrian Gonzalez make up for that lack of production rather quickly. Defensively, the move is a wash.

Financially, the move makes even more sense as WEEI’s Alex Speier pointed out a few weeks ago. In addition to saving on Scutaro’s salary, the team didn’t have to pay a $1.5 million buy-out on his option year. All in all, the move saved them $7.5 million dollars – of which gives them more flexibility heading forward to make upgrades elsewhere on their roster.

Nice to see we got Mike Lowell to play right field – When you take an honest look at the RF platoon of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, it should surprise you how much of an upgrade these two are over the Drew/Reddick sinkhole from last year.

• Sweeney is a career .296/.352/.402 hitter against righties with a .754 career OPS.

• Ross is a career .282/.349/.563 hitter against lefties with a .912 career OPS.

• Both are pretty good defenders.

Between the two, that gives you a starting Right Fielder with a career line of .282/.350/.482 and a career .833 OPS. Just to give you an idea of what that kind of production is like – consider Mike Lowell’s .279/.342/.414 line with a career .805 OPS. Obviously, it’d be nice to have one player capable of putting up those kinds of numbers, but it’s not like there’s a shortage of corner outfielders in Major League Baseball should the Red Sox elect to upgrade later on this year. We should be fine.

People need to chill on this pitching thing- The Red Sox are in the market for a #4 starter and a #5 starter. They don’t need Roger Clemens. As is – they may not need anything else at all. Considering John Lackey was historically bad last year, it’s almost inconceivable that even if Daniel Bard falters in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation that he’ll be as bad as Lackey was in 2011. Provided Bard can make it 150 innings (that remains to be seen), he’s already an upgrade. It’s nearly impossible to fathom that the Red Sox don’t hit on one of Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Alfredo Aceves, Justin Germano and John Maine – or – at least hit enough to ferry us to a returning Dice-K or a trade candidate in June/July. All things considered, while I’m not entirely sold on the idea of this team heading into the year with question marks at the back end of the rotation, I am OK with it.

Simply put, the pitching market is awful right now. There’s no need to get overcommitted or make a bad deal because everyone’s making a lot of noise. In fact, waiting might be the best policy. There might be a better player available later on this season at a better cost. With the Red Sox at that point likely having the cash to fit said player, an improved post-draft bargaining position and a whole heck of a lot of motivation to make a big splash, biding time and letting the market spin itself into the ground has it’s benefits.

The flip side of that argument is that it appears the Red Sox have some options available should they choose to explore them. They have a good shot to land Edwin Jackson, not much of a shot to get Roy Oswalt and if they’re desperate, they can pull down their pants and take a shot from Kenny Williams and get Gavin Floyd. Still, the need isn’t compelling enough for the Red Sox to bum-rush the market and make a deal on anything other than their terms.  After all, these pitchers are still shuffling through the market for a reason: there isn’t a robust market for any of them.

While the Red Sox do hold the chips in this situation, it’s still going to be a challenge to convince a free agent to come to Boston on a one-year deal and well below his asking price. If the point of a pillow deal is to build value by padding stats, the American League East isn’t exactly high on the list of desirable destinations. If they can pull it off though, they may find themselves finding the best possible value in a challenging market and in turn – convert their rotation from a question mark, to an unquestionable strength.

Edwin Jackson – in particular – would be a huge steal –  Jackson’s 3.55 FIP in 2011 was better than Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Gio Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson and Wandy Rodriguez. His xFIP was better than Floyd, Matt Cain, Daniel Hudson, Danks, Jered Weaver, Marcum, Billingsley, Buehrle and Hellickson.  Considering nearly all of those guys are paid a lot more than $5-6 million a year and/or cost a small country to acquire this offseason, the Red Sox might be getting the best value on the market. Should the Red Sox somehow be able to convince him to take short money and a one-year deal, then their policy of patience should be given it’s proper due.

Which makes it all the more ridiculous that some people are calling this the worst Red Sox offseason in history. In fact, there’s a chance it could be one of their best – Should the Red Sox sign Jackson, they’ll have addressed nearly every major issue the team had in September at the cost of about $12 million dollars. They’ll have upgraded their rotation, added considerable low-risk pitching depth, maintained their bullpen and may have managed to upgrade their lineup and defense. In the process, they will have avoided risky, long-term contracts and along the way, found some pretty cool guys to liven and lighten up a tight, tenuous clubhouse atmosphere. Sprinkle on top what’s sure to be a competitive atmosphere in Spring Training and there’s a very good shot that this team heads into the season a far more stable, balanced unit then what we sent to camp in 2011.

Tune out the noise. In an offseason where so much is riding on precision and careful, calculated risks, the Red Sox may have scored a direct hit.

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Examining the trade market: Is there a deal out there for the Red Sox?

Could a switch in Sox be in the cards for either one of these two?

With a less than thrilling FA pitching market, the Red Sox may be inclined to explore some trade options in order to fill out their 2012 rotation. Some of the names mentioned here the Red Sox have kicked tires on and some they haven’t – but they’re all worth taking a closer look at.

John Danks – Danks has been a pitcher who more or less received the ‘ace’ tag over the years and to be honest, I’m not really sure why. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher. He’s a good pitcher, butt not much more than that. His strikeout rate has been good. His walk rate is OK. His FIP and xFIP were good last year at 3.82 and 3.79, respectively. Not for nothing, he’s a pretty projectable pitcher which in and of itself makes him a valuable commodity. In a market saturated in uncertainty, he’s a reasonable target.

The problem is White Sox GM Kenny Williams’ asking price. You’re basically buying 3 WAR which isn’t anything to shake a stick at, but when you take a look at what it’s going to cost in terms of prospects, it doesn’t make much sense considering that… well, he’s basically the same pitcher as Edwin Jackson.

Now, I’m not even going to slightly pretend that’s my argument. David Cameron over at Fangraphs – who is way smarter than yours truly, ran a fascinating piece about a month ago comparing the two that can be read here.

Long story short, they basically have the same walk and strikeout percentages, nearly identical GB%, ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-. Yikes. If you want Danks, sign Jackson. Why give up the prospects?

Gavin Floyd – Floyd has been the subject of debate for saberists everywhere thanks largely to the volatility of his ‘luck stats.’ He had what we thought to be a mirage-like big break out in 2008 on the back of a ridiculous .256 BABIP. We THOUGHT that would have made him a prime candidate for regression, but alas, that didn’t happen. In fact, his skills improved in spite of his funky ERA numbers. The next year, his skills sustained him yet again, only to be bitten by the same BABIP that helped him so much in ’08, posting a .325 mark. This past year, it seemed to be more of the same, with everything normalizing minus a strangely low LOB%. I guess you maybe chalk that up to not pitching well out of the stretch? Who the heck knows at this point!

Either way , Floyd is a pretty good pitcher and for the right deal, could be had. Despite the volatile swings in luck that he’s had, its all about his skills, of which have been rock solid over the past three-four seasons. While Danks has settled into a more predictable statistical groove, it might be Floyd who’s the more consistent and projectable of the two. Who would have thought that, right? With a year or two of control, I think he’s got some significant value in a trade – the kind of value that if there’s a robust market for his services, the Red Sox might find themselves out-bid rather quickly. There’s a huge question after that whether the Sox would have the pieces to make it happen. I think Floyd has the chance to go at a fair price, I just don’t know if it’s a price the Red Sox farm system can afford right now.

Wandy Rodriguez – I’m not very big on this idea at all, but not because the price in prospects would be too costly or because I think Wandy’s a bad pitcher. At the end of the day, it comes down to the size of his contract. Whomever would get him would have to pay him $10 million this year and then $13 million next year. To a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, that’s not that big of a deal, but the tricky part is the option that’s attached to said contract. When he originally negotiated his agreement with the Astros, he ended up with a $13 million team option for 2014. The catch was that if he was traded, that club option would then turn into a player option. Now you’re looking at a 3 year, $36 million deal for Wandy, PLUS the prospects you’d give up to get him. Even if the prospects price is small, the contract still makes it more trouble than it’s worth considering the market. There haven’t been appreciable drops in his numbers and outside of a goofy HR/FB spike this year, so truth be told – there’s nothing about him that leaves even remote cause for worry about him heading into this season. Chances are on the open market – Wandy would command that kind of deal. I just don’t see the point of shipping quality prospects to the Astros IN ADDITION TO paying for him when you could likely grab a Kuroda/Oswalt for a similar price. I know some folks have been floating the idea of the Astros eating some of his salary, but I have a hard time imagining that given how barren the pitching landscape is right now. It pains me to say that – especially considering the fact that this dude absolutely exterminates left handed hitters. However, I wouldn’t walk away from this deal entirely – if the Red Sox go the dumpster diving route and figure they need more help by the trade deadline – Wandy’s going to a guy to keep an eye on again this year. The Astros might be willing to eat the remainder of this year’s salary owed, meaning the winning bidder could nab Wandy on a one year deal with a player option. 2 Years, $26 million seems like a way better deal than 3 and $36. Just saying.

Joe Saunders – Saunders was just non-tendered by the Diamondbacks, so he’s no longer a trade option, but whatever. I wouldn’t be able to live with myself if I didn’t scream NO~! to the Red Sox on this. Even if it falls on deaf ears, at least I did what I could, ya know. Anyway, this guy’s inexplicably being linked to the Red Sox likely due to his 3.69 ERA that traditionalist knuckle draggers in the Boston sports media probably drool over. He’s posted nearly a 10% HR/FB% in three straight years. He posts bad numbers despite the high LOB%. The FIP and xFIP numbers suggest that his traditional statistics paint a very dishonest portrait of who he is. Low strike out ratio, high HR/9 and has a career BABIP that’s all over the place each year. He’s at best a #5 in the AL East and would be worth a dumpster dive, but I wouldn’t pay him very much. The idea that the Diamondbacks considered shopping him was kind of funny. Alas, they wizened up and didn’t. There was a reason for that.

Gio Gonzalez – Gio’s a guy who’s obviously a good pitcher but has evolved into this year’s ‘sexy pick’ among baseball nerds everywhere. I’m not as sold – and I feel – with good reason. The major area of concern is his uncomfortably high walk rate.My worry with the walk rate is that if his control leaves him even a little bit, there’s potential for the wheels to come flying off. All things being considered, that riskiness puts him right in line with Oswalt (who’s back issues can’t be ignored) and Kuroda (old man) as a good – albeit risky option.  I’m rather neutral about the whole “A’s pitchers elsewhere” thing because his home and road splits are pretty consistent. I do think the walk rate would come into play more in the AL East through, where the batters you’re facing have more power across the board. His major benefit is that he’s young,cost-controlled and has an awesome strikeout rate. If you’re a team that’s not interested in high-priced free agents and have some prospects to burn, he’s a worthwhile guy to look at. I think if the Red Sox decide to go for the jugular and get the best guy they can – then I think Floyd is a better fit than Gio, although it’s hard to knock folks on this choice. I just don’t know how comfortable I would be giving up considerable young talent when it appears that Gonzalez might be walking a tight rope. The last scary piece is the asking price, which A’s GM Billy Beane has set at a completely stupid level. So stupid, in fact, that he asked for Mike Stanton in a proposed deal with the Marlins yesterday. I can’t blame him for asking – but still. The Red Sox match up well with the A’s for a trade, as the A’s are more or less in a holding pattern until they get a new stadium. They’d be an organization that would be interested at high-upside prospects at the lower levels of a team’s farm system, so the fit seem natural with the Sox. I just don’t know how comfortable I’d be giving up that kind of a haul for someone as dicey as Gonzalez. We’ll see.

Jonathon Niese –  Niese’s surface numbers leave little to get excited about.  He posted a 4.40 ERA last year and a 1.41 WHIP. That seems like barely good enough for a #5 starter never mind one in our division. Right? Oh boy, no. A look at the peripherals show a pretty good pitcher in the making here. He was 18% above the league average in strikeouts and although that seems high given his minor league track record, his velocity gained 1 mph last year. It MIGHT be sustainable. Even if it isn’t, a regression to a 6-7 K/9 isn’t bad considering what the Sox are shopping for. I’d expect his high groundball rate to fall a bit, but his SIERA and xFIP suggest that he might have been a pretty unlucky pitcher last year, meaning that the GB% might NOT fall. He had a high .324 BABIP that seemed to hurt him quite a bit as well. Combine that with a not-so-hot LOB% of 67% and that pretty much tells us why his surface stats were so high last year.

I like his skill set in Fenway largely because of his high GB%, the fact that he doesn’t walk a lot of batters and best yet – he’s gaining velocity. That paints an interesting portrait for sure.  And hey – he’s had a better LD% than Cliff Lee. That’s nothing to shake a stick at! He’s young, cost-controlled, and super-under the radar. He’s arbitration eligible this year to boot, so perhaps the more cost-conscious version of the Mets decide to pass on giving him a raise this year and begin seriously looking for a new home for him. Who knows.

Now the flip side of all that is that he’s developed a bit of a reputation for being injury prone, thus he’ds never outlasted 160 IP in his career. That’s not good. However, most of his injury worries has been with his obliques and his hamstring. The good news to that is no damage to the arm. There is a risk involved, but he’d cost peanuts in terms of dollars and I can’t imagine the price on him being sky-high right now. In comparison to dumping the money down on an Oswalt or Kuroda, he’s a much more worth while risk at this point. He makes a lot of sense from a lot of different angles.

Anyone you all think is worth kicking tires on? If so, who

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Red Sox hot stove weekly round up (12/6 – 12/11)

Here’s your hot stove news and notes from the past week.

•  David Ortiz decided to accept salary arbitration, meaning he’ll be back in a Red Sox uniform for 2012. Numerous sources are saying both sides are talking about a 2-year deal for the 36-year old slugger.
• The Red Sox have been kicking tires on a number of starting pitchers. At this past week’s Winter Meetings the Sox kicked tires on a number of options including Gio Gonzalez, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Later in the week the team was reportedly interested in trading for Joe Saunders. They were said to be mum on the idea of any big free agent acquisition, but that didn’t prevent some from insinuating that they may be interested in Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish. Sox CEO Larry Lucchino stated that the team was indeed open to going over the luxury tax, but it’d have to be for the right kinds of players.
• The Red Sox seem fairly content with their Right Field situation, but may decide to pick up a cost-effective right-handed bat to complement incumbent Josh Reddick. Before Ortiz had accepted arbitration, the team had checked in on Josh Willingham, Carlos Quentin and Michael Cuddyer as potential OF bats. Now that the team knows Ortiz will be back in the fold, it’s hard to see them spending significant money in the outfield.
• The closest the Red Sox came to making a high-visibility deal this past week was on the closer front. The team did well in waiting out the market and now have a nice selection of options with little in the way of competition. The Sox have been in an ongoing dialogue with Ryan Madson, although many expect that the price (still) might be too high. The other option on the table has been a potential trade with the Oakland A’s for Andrew Bailey. There were two packages bandied about over the Winter Meetings discussions, but no agreement was reached. Apparently, the Tampa Bay Rays seem to be pretty interested in Bailey as well, despite having a number of viable in-house closing options. In addition, it appears the Texas Rangers are interested in Jed Lowrie. A deal was discussed between the two teams that could potentially bring Koji Uehara or Mark Lowe to Boston. Stay tuned.
• Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves were both told this week to show up to Spring Training stretched out and ready to start. That doesn’t mean that they’ll be in the rotation necessarily, but it appears that the team is willing to experiment with the idea. The upside is obvious – two in-house, cost effective solutions to their rotation issues. The downside – it’d essentially mean that the Red Sox would lose three of their most vital pieces out of the bullpen from last year.
• It doesn’t appear that the Red Sox are interested in bringing back Jason Varitek or Tim Wakefield next season.
• The Red Sox made two depth-signings this past week in bringing back SP Andrew Miller on a one year deal worth over a little over a million dollars as well as signing Connecticut native Jesse Carlson to a minor league deal with a spring training invite. The Red Sox also picked up reliever Marco Duarte in a trade during this year’s Rule-5 draft.
• The Red Sox are almost done assembling their coaching staff. It was announced this week that Gary Tuck, Tim Bogar and Dave Magadan would be coming back to the team from 2012. Former bench coach DeMarlo Hale is off to Baltimore to take a job as third base coach. The Red Sox have yet to find a pitching coach, but did interview Brad Arnsberg on Wednesday. David Cone is another name that has been thrown around.

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Red Sox have unspectacular, but successful Winter Meetings.

Ben Cherington has a lot to think about after an exploratory winter meetings (Photo Credit: Comcast Sports)

While it wasn’t the most exciting week to be a Red Sox fan, it’s hard to look at GM Ben Cherington’s first winter meetings as anything less (or more) than a mild success. The Red Sox are in a better, more focused position heading out of the baseball’s annual free agent/trade suare, and were able to accomplish a few positive things on the to do list, including:

• Bringing David Ortiz back
• A completed lineup that allows the Red Sox to focus on starting pitching exclusively for the remainder of the offseason
• A near-full coaching staff with only the pitching coach position to be filled
• Several doors open to address SP needs with names such as Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jonathon Niese involved.
• A more ideal position in the closer’s market with a strong selection of options and a more favorable negotiating position.
• Knowing that the Yankees aren’t any better now then when they walked into the meetings.

There were also some not-so-great developments to take away from the week as well. The Los Angeles Angels got a lot better, adding the best hitter (Albert Pujols) and pitcher (C.J. Wilson) to their roster. They’ll certainly be a player next year in an already competitive American League. The Blue Jays solved their closer issue and the Mariners seemed poised to make a big move or two that could thrust them back into the periffery of contention as well.

Still, all things considered, the Red Sox are in a better place today then they were on Monday, which is the whole point. Here’s a full recap of the week’s activity:

Lineup

By the time the week was over, it seemed as if the Red Sox were content with their starting lineup, especially after news that David Ortiz would accept arbitration on Wednesday. The two parties couldn’t reach an agreement on a multi-year deal, with there being about a $7 million difference between Ortiz and the Red Sox in spite of weeks of negotiations. The Red Sox upped their offer Wednesday night, but it wasn’t enough to get Papi to sign on the dotted line. Instead, Ortiz opted to accept the Red Sox offer of arbitration, which all but guarantees him a raise from his $12.5 million salary in 2011. The deal works for both sides as Papi will get more money short-term while giving up security and the Red Sox gaining more security despite the pay raise.

Luckily for the Red Sox, there wasn’t much of a market for Ortiz. The Orioles and Blue Jays were both rumored to be interested but declined interest publicly and never presented the 36-year old slugger with an official offer. Still, the Red Sox did their due diligence to start the conversation on some potential insurance policies kicking tires on Laynce Nix, Josh Willingham, Carlos Quentin and Michael Cuddyer as potential pieces should David Ortiz sign elsewhere or decline arbitration. Carlos Beltran had long been considered a potential target for the Red Sox had Ortiz not resigned, as he’d have served a dual purpose as a part time RFer and DH, but the Sox never expressed much interest.

In other bat-related news, it looks as if Ryan Lavarnway will be splitting DH and Catching duties full time with the Red Sox as Cherington gave a strong indication that the Sox weren’t interested in bringing back Team Captain Jason Varitek for another season. The Red Sox may add a right handed OF bat to compliment the winner of the Ryan Kalish/Josh Reddick competition at Spring Training, but by all accounts, the team seems set offensively. Some fans might be a bit underwhelmed by the lack of a big move, but truth be told it’s hard to upgrade the best offense in the AL.

Starting pitching

The biggest issue facing the Red Sox heading into the Winter meetings was how they were going to approach building their starting rotation. While we know more now than we knew on Monday, the problem still exists. Still, the perceived lack of progress wasn’t for a lack of activity.

By all indications, the Red Sox won’t be entering the high-priced free agent frakis. The Red Sox did their due diligence and checked in on both C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle, but never made an official offer to either. Jim Bowden at ESPN seems to think the Red Sox are lurking with regards to Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish, but management gave mixed signals on Wednesday, with Cherington seemingly cold to the idea, citing the existing level of financial commitment to the starting rotation as his reason. Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino didn’t rule out the possibility though, saying that he’d leave that decision up to Cherington. Roy Oswalt is probably be best available option out on the free agent market, although it might be former Dodgers hurler Hiroki Kuroda who interests the Sox the most.

On the trade front, the Red Sox opened a lot of doors, but didn’t walk through any of them. Over the course of the week, the Sox talked about Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jonathan Niese with their respective teams, but like the arch rival Yankees, found the asking price on all of them to be astronomical. The A’s and General Manager Billy Beane are looking for a “Dan Haren-like haul” for Gonzalez. If you’ll remember, Haren was traded prior to the 2008 season as the Diamondbacks parted with Carlos Gonzalez (later part of the deal that sent Matt Holiday to Oakland), Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Chris Carter. It’s safe to say neither the Sox nor the Yankees would be terribly comfortable doing that, much less having the pieces in place to get such a deal done. White Sox GM Kenny Williams’ price for John Danks is rumored to be just as high, although the market for Gavin Floyd is uncertain. Mets hurler Jonathan Niese is a fairly well regarded prospect who could be a potential fit depending on what direction the Mets want to go.

With an expensive free agent and trade market for starting pitchers looming, Cherington seems resigned to be on the lookout for bargains as the winter progresses. The team may also look internally as both Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves have been told to report to spring training stretched out and ready to start. Whether the Red Sox decide to do that or not could have serious implications for their relief corps, as that would mean the Red Sox would essentially lose their three most effective weapons out of the bullpen from last year. While it doesn’t seem like an optimal solution, it’s certainly on the table and being considered. Cherington also didn’t indicate that he was very warm to the idea of bringing Red Sox stalwart Tim Wakefield back into the fold. Andrew Miller was signed to a one year, at a shade over a million dollars.

Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen was the focus of much of the chatter surrounding the team over the course of the week, and the deals that came closest to getting done seemed to be related to towards bolstering their relief.

The issue of who’s going to close for the team seems to be heading in the direction of an external solution. By all measures, the Red Sox have played the closer’s market well. With former closer Jonathan Papelbon inking a 4 year, $50 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the price of closers appeared to skyrocket. Because of the sudden spike in the market the Red Sox and others decided to wait for some pieces to fall and prices to normalize. All things considered, it appears as if it’s done just that.

The Sox seem to have their eye on four potential pieces right now – Free agents Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson and incumbent A’s closer Andrew Bailey. The Red Sox had spoken with free agent Heath Bell and the Rockies about a potential trade that would have brought Huston Street to Boston, but nothing really materialized out of either of those discussions. The Red Sox appear to be most interested in Madson and Bailey who are probably the two best options left on the market. Both will come with a cost – Madson with years and dollars and Bailey with prospects/players, but are both quality players.

As for what it’ll take to acquire one of the two, we can make some educated guesses. I’m ASSUMING a deal with Madson would probably be in the 2-3 year range and in the neighborhood of $23-$27 million. There are, however, two red flags with Madson – the first being that he doesn’t have an extensive track record closing and the second being that he’s a Scott Boras client. There is a possibility that perhaps Boras would go for a 1 year, high dollar value deal for Madson, much like the ‘pillow contract’ that the Sox dolled out to 2B Adrian Beltre before the 2010 season.

Bailey will require a trade, of which some of the parameters have been tossed around publicly by reporters already. The first package bandied about would require the Red Sox to part with Right Fielder Josh Reddick and prospects. The second proposal involved several prospects further down the Red Sox system – with Lars Anderson, Raul Alcantara and Brandon Workman coming up as the rumored pieces. The A’s and Red Sox match up well for a trade. The A’s are in a holding pattern until a new stadium deal in Oakland is worked out or a potential relocation to San Jose. In light of that, the A’s would likely have more interest than most teams in some of the Red Sox A and AA prospects – the area of the Sox farm system that currently has the most talent. The A’s aren’t looking for immediate return and instead are focused on long-term value. Considering things from that perspective, the Sox system may be able to meet that need. With the closers market mostly limited to just the Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds right now, it looks like the Red Sox could be the only deal in town. Bailey is a former American League rookie of the year.

In terms of filling out the pen, the Red Sox also began the process of scoping out the marketplace. The Sox were connected to the Darren Oliver talks earlier in the week, but nothing was mentioned other than expressed interest. The team also talked with the Texas Rangers about a mutually beneficial trade that would involve sending utility infielder Jed Lowrie to the Rangers in exchange for Mark Lowe or Koji Uehara.

The Red Sox did make some depth moves during the winter meetings, singing Jesse Carlson to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training as well as acquiring Astros AAA-reliever Marco Duarte via trade during the Rule-5 draft.

Other news and notes

Bobby Valentine was wearing his full media charm all week, expressing hatred for the Yankees, mocking a lineup question and while he was at it – keeping us in the loop about the formation of his coaching staff. While it was announced that former bench coach DeMarlo Hale will be leaving for Baltimore, the Red Sox will be bringing back Tim Bogar, Dave Magadan and Gary Tuck. Bill Buckner’s name has been tossed around as a potential bench coach, although reports seemed to indicate that the organization wasn’t overwhelmed with excitement about the idea.

The one spot on staff that has yet to be filled is the pitching coach position. Valentine expressed a desire to name a coach sooner rather than later, and it seems the process is in full swing. The Sox interviewed Josh Beckett’s former Marlins pitching coach Brad Arnsberg on Wednesday. David Cone is another interesting name being discussed although Cone has more or less dismissed the idea.

In other news, Louis Tiant won’t be elected to the Hall of Fame this time, with Cubs great Ron Santo getting the nod from the Veterans Committee. And shockingly, the Red Sox and Cubs have yet to work out compensation for Theo Epstein. Shocker there.

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