CANNONBALL! Red Sox go dumpster diving to fill out 2012 rotation

(PHOTO CREDIT: Matt Freed, Post-Gazette) I love the smell of trash in the morning!

“We felt like, all along, this was going to be an all-winter project,” Cherington said. “Some of the moves will be very under the radar, and there may be some that are more on the radar. We’ve made progress, but nothing close. We’ve continued to do a lot of work. We have a good idea of what we may or may not be able to do.”- Ben Cherington, 12/9/11 – Boston Herald

Don’t worry about misdirection, folks. There isn’t a shred of it.

Whether we’re thrilled with it or not, the Boston Red Sox are going to have to take a different route towards building a pitching staff in 2012 than they have in previous years. There’s a shallow, unimpressive free agent starter market out there right now, where nearly all of the ‘better’ options are asking for more than they’re worth and too many years.

In turn, the effects from the poor free agent market are have had a profound effect on the trade market. Guys like Gio Gonzalez – who has a 4.05 BB/9 by the way – are being dangled with incomprehensibly high price tags attached. A Gio Gonzalez will cost you roughly the same price as it took the Arizona Diamondbacks to acquire Dan Haren from the Oakland A’s years earlier. Frankly, that’s ludicrous.

So there isn’t anyone of note worth signing. There isn’t anyone worth trading for relative to cost. That leaves you with three options – A.) Search for internal solutions; B.) Wait out the market and take the risk that said bigger names won’t sign and can be had at a better price later on in the offseason; or C.) Actively sift through a plethora of available bargain pieces, take a low-cost gamble and hope you strike gold.

The 2011 Yankees went with Plan-C and won the AL East in the process, signing Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to team friendly deals that worked out well. It appears that the 2012 Red Sox will attempt to do the same, with a little Plan-A sprinkled on top.

So who are the guys the Red Sox might look at? Who’s drifting under the radar? Let’s take a look:

Jeff Francis – Francis is a guy who doesn’t have anything on the old stat sheet that jumps off the page at you, but his raw skills seem to fit Fenway really well. The first thing that really jumps off the page to me is his low walk rate of 1.92. In spite of his lack of pure stuff, He’s not going to be the kind of guy who beats himself OR is afraid to pitch to contact (are you reading this Jon Lester?). He pitches to contact, which means he’s less likely to burn needless pitches nibbling around the corners. It also means he could get hit a lot. His ERA was high (4.82) but his FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.29) make him an average pitcher. His career LOB% is exactly at 70%, and his career BABIP is sitting around .310. That means there’s little luck to weed through here. His 45% groundball rate over the past five seasons gives me hope that he can keep the ball down consistently in Fenway and whatever regression there’d be from coming to Fenway would be swallowed up by finally having an above-average defense behind him. And most interesting of all? He’s a 2 WAR pitcher each of the last 2 years. His 2.6 WAR in 2011 makes him worth as much as David Ortiz in 2010 and worth more than Jonathan Papelbon in three of his past five seasons. He’s not sexy, but he’s a solid #4 to me and he’ll be valued as a #5. This guy is the definition of an under the radar signing. He could likely be had for around $5 million, but if the Sox went north of that, it wouldn’t be an overpay at all.

Joel Pineiro– This one might not get people very excited and reeks of ‘been there, done that’, but taking a look at Pineiro, he’s not too bad of a pitcher. Truth be told, a lot of the things I liked about Francis, are present in Pineiro; especially the fact that there isn’t much luck (or lack thereof) to weed through. He’s got a 70.1% career LOB and 49.2% of his batted balls are grounders. Anything in the air could pose problems though, as he’s got a below average-well below average HR/FB ratio at around 11%. Post-Dave Duncan though, Pineiro HAS done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. He’s got a good walk rate to boot but won’t strike you out. That means like Francis, he pitches to contact. In the AL East, that usually goes one of two ways. They kill you or don’t. The higher than normal HR/FB ratio scares me a bit more than Francis would. His FIP and xFIP are trending in the wrong direction, increasing every year over the past three seasons. Still, he was a 1.3 WAR last year sits him directly at a below average pitcher. I don’t like his upside as much as Francis’, but he’s an OK guy on a flier and may come even cheaper.

Rich Harden– So much for projectable pitchers. Harden is a guy that fascinates the crap out of me. Should the Red Sox decide to divvy up the #5 starter spot amongst a few different arms, Harden could be a versatile addition. It’s a shame he doesn’t commit himself to the bullpen because his high strike out rate (9.91) suggests he’d be a grade-A ass kicker there, but alas. He has had an erratic walk rate over the past few years, with it ballooning as high as 6.07 with the Rangers in 2010 to as low as 3.38 last year. It’s really difficult to figure out where he’s going to land, but one thing is for certain – if he can stay healthy and his control is there, he’s going to be a really effective pitcher. The flip side of that argument is that, well – what pitcher WON’T do well by staying healthy and not walking dudes? What kills him as a full time starter for me is his downright scary HR rate (15.6% last year and a league-worst 12.5% in 2010). Harden has some really volatile numbers which tend to lead you one of two ways: You’re either very seduced by his upside and hope that his control, health and HR numbers magically settle into place OR are scared off entirely by the same three things. To me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I’d add him if I knew I’d be using others in conjunction with him. He’s be an ideal spot starter. If the price is right, he’d be an ideal ‘depth’ add. Chances are his days as a full-time Major League starter are over.

Jason Marquis – Of our possible pieces of trash, Marquis is the most ‘sure thing’ out of all of them. He’s a guy who’ll thrive with a good defense behind him – which is something he really hasn’t had the luxury of having since his stint with the Cardinals. His LOB% is almost dead average. His BABIP is very low in terms of his career numbers, but consistent. It did spike the last couple of years so most of his statistical decline could probably be attributed to that, especially his smelly 2010. His BB/9 the last few years have been slightly below average and he doesn’t strike many guys out, but you have to love his 50.4% GB%. He’s completely average at giving up the long ball. He’s a below-average pitcher. Nothing more, nothing less. He’s good for a 1.0-1.5 WAR and that’s about it, which fits your #5 model starter fairly well. $5-6 million probably gets him signed.

Paul Maholm– I like Maholm A LOT in Fenway Park. And I mean a lot. For one, like some of the other guys on this list – he’s projectable. 70.4% LOB% and a slightly unlucky .310 BABIP. He’s not going to strike a ton of guys out, but he’s a groundball machine at 52.3%. He’s better at giving up HR’s than say – a guy like Gavin Floyd– and has a league-average walk rate. His ERA has been less than inspiring over the past few years, but he’s had a 3.98 FIP over the past four years, making him almost EXACTLY league average. He’s had the benefit of pitching in PNC Park to be sure, but has had to suffer with the Pirates’ not-so-spectacular gloves behind him. At age 30, there’s no real indication that he wouldn’t be able to keep up those numbers in Fenway, especially with the Red Sox gloves behind him. He’s posted 2 WAR+ in five of the last six seasons. Like Francis, he’s a guy who isn’t spectacular, but he’s effectively average and won’t be valued as such. I think he’d play well here.

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A quick glance at potential Red Sox free agent pitching targets

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington has a lot to think about at this year's Winter Meetings

Everyone’s hopping on planes as we speak to head out to Dallas for MLB’s Winter Meetings where lots of wheeling and dealing is expected to take place. Last year, the Red Sox headed in losing Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez and walked out with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in tow. How will this year’s meetings play out? Who knows. But one thing is for sure, the Red Sox need to add some starting pitching to their rotation and it seems that newly-minted GM Ben Cherington will be looking to make a move. It could be a trade, but with some viable options available on the free agent market, Cherington might want to consider hanging on to his prospects and instead open up the check book if the price seems right. The following is a look at some of the names linked to the Red Sox and what they might represent to the team:

The best pitcher on the market: C.J. Wilson – He probably is, but at the money it’s going to take to get him, he’s clearly probably not worth the investment it’s going to take to land him – at least from where the Red Sox are standing. He makes a lot of sense in a place like Washington, where they’re trying to build a brand and prove to a fan base that they’re serious about adding big name talent if it helps them in the long-term, but for a team like Boston, it just doesn’t seem to make too much sense.

That and there’s some cause for concern. On the good side, he’s almost a full k/9 above the league average. But he’s also a full BB/9 higher than your league average. Not good. Then there’s the whole pitching in the AL East thing, which truth be told, I don’t tend to put too much stock in for most players. The issue though, is that $100 million investment isn’t a commitment you make to ‘just another player’ and regardless of Wilson’s skill level, with that kind of price tag attached, you need to get as much value as possible. The AL East has four hitter’s parks and some pretty tough lineups. That’s why this report from Baseball Prospectus should scare the crap out of you. That’s a ‘quality of opponents’ report. Of the 144 SP’s who qualified, Wilson ranked #144.

That makes you look at things you normally wouldn’t consider. I hate taking too much stock in playoff stats because they’re such a small sample to draw any reasonable conclusions off of, but with Wilson facing the Rays, Tigers and Cardinals and having poor results, it does make you pause and think more than it normally would. I think it’s a safe bet to assume that he likely regresses next year, even though I don’t think it’ll be a substantial one.

Now we need to be careful to point out here that C.J. Wilson is a really good pitcher. But I’d be worried here – especially considering the amount of money to be considered on such a limited track record. I think whomever gets him will – no doubt – have a high-quality starter. If the Red Sox only had one or two areas to address, I’d say they should take a good, hard look at him. But that’s simply not the case. There are two spots in the rotation open and there’s the question of what to do in the bullpen – especially the closer position. There’s also the question of adding a bat to the lineup and what will or won’t happen with David Ortiz. Right now, it just doesn’t seem like a worthwhile gamble. I’m being picky here, but I think you need to with nine-figure contracts.

The best fit that isn’t: Mark Buehrle – I love this guy, I just don’t know if I like him on this team. On the surface, Buehrle seems like a really good fit. He’s 33 and a few years away from regression it would seem, likely a safer bet than some of the older options on the market, and perhaps most appealing to dirtdog-loving Red Sox fans – he’s one heck of a personality. He’s a leader in the clubhouse, and outspoken critic of stupidity everywhere and has been a model of consistency throughout his career.

Buehrle is a command pitcher who relies on control to get hitters out. He’s extremely efficient and keeps a low pitch count. He throws a variety of pitches including a fastball, curveball, change, slider and a cutter. He’s an innings eater to boot, logging over 200 IP in eleven straight seasons. On the surface, he seems like a really fantastic fit.

There are a lot of issues here though, that are lingering at the surface and beneath. On the surface, there’s the issue of him becoming the sexy free agent this year. Every year, it seems like a guy who is a little further down the list in terms of talent becomes suddenly – and rather inexplicably – the guy that everyone needs to have on their team. Suddenly a huge market pops up, the price pops up even higher, and the lucky winner ends up getting their man, but often at a price that borders on ridiculous. I’d say this year’s sexy everyday player is Michael Cuddyer. This year’s pitcher? Definitely Mark Buehrle. Don’t get me wrong – I like this guy a lot, but I’ve got a strong feeling he’s going to be getting a four year deal and truth be told, for a guy who’s defied the DIPS theory for the better part of his career, that’s not the kind of contract I’d want to hand out to a 33-year old pitcher. It may sound insane, but I think there’s an extremely strong chance that someone goes as far as $50 million for this guy. Considering that the Red Sox are looking to add a #4 and NOT a #1/#2 pitcher, there’s no reason to flop that kind of money down on a pitcher like Buehrle – who is who he is and won’t be much more (or much worse, mind you) than what he is. Maybe teams rationalize it by paying for his predictability. Who knows? Still, I’d be wary to not get caught up in a bidding war.

The next big issue is his Strikeout percentage, which has lingered at around 12% over the past few years. Now that he’s likely past his prime, I have legit concerns about how much longer he’ll be able to keep that up. The other big worry is that a lot of his success comes from getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone without getting a lot of misses. I can’t help but think that the team that lands him is sitting on a ticking time bomb and it’s only  a matter of time before it blows up. I just don’t know how comfortable I’d be chasing him right now. If the market cools, I’d kick tires, but I wouldn’t sign him for any more than 2 years. I just don’t think it’s wise considering the tight-rope he’s been walking.

Most Upside: Roy Oswalt – Oswalt was due to have a down year and sure enough – last year was it. His back went south in the beginning of the season and he posted career-worst numbers almost across the board. However, a look at Oswalt month-to-month indicate that the back injury was almost 100% to blame for his drop off. His April and Septembers were fantastic, with him hanging around his normal 7.0 K/9 ratio. During the middle of the season however, nearly all of his pitches had higher contact rates. If only one or two of his pitches had dropped off a cliff, I’d be worried, but it was all of them. Combined with his walk rate – which even in spite of the injury was fairly consistent- would lead me to conclude that his control wasn’t an issue and it was more an issue of stuff. Oswalt has always been an aggressive pitcher, not known for pitching around hitters.  That’s an issue when your stuff isn’t good – and probably explains the spikes. I think it’s fairly safe to say that the back played an enormous role in his mid-season struggles.

Given a full offseason to get back in shape, I think Oswalt could have a strong bounce-back next year. Because of his injury, I feel like teams will be in a strong bargaining position as well. 2 years, $26 million would seem like a lot on its face, but I feel like the Red Sox could take the extra leap of faith here and potentially get another top-of-the-rotation arm. The concern of course is that the back issues linger and they end up with yet another questionable pitching contract. Still though, nothing seems to suggest that his skills have deteriorated. Like most aging pitchers with lots of miles logged it’s a question of health. Seeing as Oswalt’s injury history isn’t that extensive, I would lean towards him being a very worthwhile gamble.

Best Value: Hiroki Kuroda – The Red Sox have been enamoured with Kuroda for some time and with the Dodgers signing Chris Capuano last week, it seems like Kuroda may be on the move. Last July, the Red Sox had made acquiring Kuroda a priority and even got as far as having a deal in place, only for Kuroda to squash the deal with a no-trade clause he had in his contract. With Bobby Valentine manning the Red Sox bench, Kuroda in need of a team and the Red Sox in need of a pitcher who’s mostly a safe bet and won’t blow the bank – this might be the best value on the market.

The keyword there is ‘might’.

First a little background… Kuroda seems like a pitcher who’d fit well within the confines of Fenway – even at an advanced age. He rarely walks anyone (2.1 BB/9) and gives up even fewer home runs (1.07/9). He’s more ground-ball oriented than he is a strikeout pitcher, but has really good stuff despite not having a ton of velocity (in fact, he had the 9^th highest swing and miss % in baseball in 2010).  He uses a splitter as his strikeout pitch and throws two versions of a slider. His swing and miss % out of the strike zone is impressive to say the least.

His age is a double-edged sword. On one hand, you almost wonder if the bottom is going to fall out – but so far there doesn’t appear to be any indication that it will. The upside is that other pitchers have entered the ‘sexier’ category and Kuroda might be the guy who slips under the radar as a better value. I think he could certainly be had on a 2 year deal around $11-$12 per. Throw in some old man incentives and that might get the job done.

Don’t sleep on: Erik Bedard – I know. I’m sure you were hoping for Edwin Jackson or something, but seriously. Pop quiz: Who had the highest K/9 ratio among Red Sox starters last year? Erik Bedard. Who had the worst BABIP amongst Red Sox starters? Erik Bedard. The lowest HR/9? Erik Bedard. All of those signs point to him likely having a decent 2012. Of course, that comes with the same ‘if’ that’s followed Bedard around during his entire career – his health. No bones about it, Bedard is an injury factory. He’s got top of the rotation stuff and can be as difficult to deal with as anyone in baseball when he’s healthy, but that’s few and far between. I’m not saying Bedard is the #3/#4 guy. He just hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy enough to be that guy. But in tandem with Aceves in the back of the pen? If the price is right – which it may be – I’d bring him back.

Going dumpster diving on: Jeff Francis – Francis is a guy who keeps the ball on the ground a lot and is an innings chewer. His surface stats look poor, but there still might be a good pitcher in there, somewhere. He’s got the kinds of stats that would play well in a park like Fenway. He induces a lot of groundballs and gives up even fewer HR’s than Kuroda. He’s got a low walk rate to boot and to my great surprise, was a 2 WAR pitcher the past two seasons. Yeah, Jeff freakin’ Francis. There’s a low line drive % in there as well. I’ll be damned. Thanks to those inflated traditional stats, he’s a guy that I’ll bet goes for peanuts, making him more than worth a flier.

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