(PHOTO CREDIT: Matt Freed, Post-Gazette) I love the smell of trash in the morning!
“We felt like, all along, this was going to be an all-winter project,” Cherington said. “Some of the moves will be very under the radar, and there may be some that are more on the radar. We’ve made progress, but nothing close. We’ve continued to do a lot of work. We have a good idea of what we may or may not be able to do.”- Ben Cherington, 12/9/11 – Boston Herald
Don’t worry about misdirection, folks. There isn’t a shred of it.
Whether we’re thrilled with it or not, the Boston Red Sox are going to have to take a different route towards building a pitching staff in 2012 than they have in previous years. There’s a shallow, unimpressive free agent starter market out there right now, where nearly all of the ‘better’ options are asking for more than they’re worth and too many years.
In turn, the effects from the poor free agent market are have had a profound effect on the trade market. Guys like Gio Gonzalez – who has a 4.05 BB/9 by the way – are being dangled with incomprehensibly high price tags attached. A Gio Gonzalez will cost you roughly the same price as it took the Arizona Diamondbacks to acquire Dan Haren from the Oakland A’s years earlier. Frankly, that’s ludicrous.
So there isn’t anyone of note worth signing. There isn’t anyone worth trading for relative to cost. That leaves you with three options – A.) Search for internal solutions; B.) Wait out the market and take the risk that said bigger names won’t sign and can be had at a better price later on in the offseason; or C.) Actively sift through a plethora of available bargain pieces, take a low-cost gamble and hope you strike gold.
The 2011 Yankees went with Plan-C and won the AL East in the process, signing Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to team friendly deals that worked out well. It appears that the 2012 Red Sox will attempt to do the same, with a little Plan-A sprinkled on top.
So who are the guys the Red Sox might look at? Who’s drifting under the radar? Let’s take a look:
Jeff Francis – Francis is a guy who doesn’t have anything on the old stat sheet that jumps off the page at you, but his raw skills seem to fit Fenway really well. The first thing that really jumps off the page to me is his low walk rate of 1.92. In spite of his lack of pure stuff, He’s not going to be the kind of guy who beats himself OR is afraid to pitch to contact (are you reading this Jon Lester?). He pitches to contact, which means he’s less likely to burn needless pitches nibbling around the corners. It also means he could get hit a lot. His ERA was high (4.82) but his FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.29) make him an average pitcher. His career LOB% is exactly at 70%, and his career BABIP is sitting around .310. That means there’s little luck to weed through here. His 45% groundball rate over the past five seasons gives me hope that he can keep the ball down consistently in Fenway and whatever regression there’d be from coming to Fenway would be swallowed up by finally having an above-average defense behind him. And most interesting of all? He’s a 2 WAR pitcher each of the last 2 years. His 2.6 WAR in 2011 makes him worth as much as David Ortiz in 2010 and worth more than Jonathan Papelbon in three of his past five seasons. He’s not sexy, but he’s a solid #4 to me and he’ll be valued as a #5. This guy is the definition of an under the radar signing. He could likely be had for around $5 million, but if the Sox went north of that, it wouldn’t be an overpay at all.
Joel Pineiro– This one might not get people very excited and reeks of ‘been there, done that’, but taking a look at Pineiro, he’s not too bad of a pitcher. Truth be told, a lot of the things I liked about Francis, are present in Pineiro; especially the fact that there isn’t much luck (or lack thereof) to weed through. He’s got a 70.1% career LOB and 49.2% of his batted balls are grounders. Anything in the air could pose problems though, as he’s got a below average-well below average HR/FB ratio at around 11%. Post-Dave Duncan though, Pineiro HAS done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. He’s got a good walk rate to boot but won’t strike you out. That means like Francis, he pitches to contact. In the AL East, that usually goes one of two ways. They kill you or don’t. The higher than normal HR/FB ratio scares me a bit more than Francis would. His FIP and xFIP are trending in the wrong direction, increasing every year over the past three seasons. Still, he was a 1.3 WAR last year sits him directly at a below average pitcher. I don’t like his upside as much as Francis’, but he’s an OK guy on a flier and may come even cheaper.
Rich Harden– So much for projectable pitchers. Harden is a guy that fascinates the crap out of me. Should the Red Sox decide to divvy up the #5 starter spot amongst a few different arms, Harden could be a versatile addition. It’s a shame he doesn’t commit himself to the bullpen because his high strike out rate (9.91) suggests he’d be a grade-A ass kicker there, but alas. He has had an erratic walk rate over the past few years, with it ballooning as high as 6.07 with the Rangers in 2010 to as low as 3.38 last year. It’s really difficult to figure out where he’s going to land, but one thing is for certain – if he can stay healthy and his control is there, he’s going to be a really effective pitcher. The flip side of that argument is that, well – what pitcher WON’T do well by staying healthy and not walking dudes? What kills him as a full time starter for me is his downright scary HR rate (15.6% last year and a league-worst 12.5% in 2010). Harden has some really volatile numbers which tend to lead you one of two ways: You’re either very seduced by his upside and hope that his control, health and HR numbers magically settle into place OR are scared off entirely by the same three things. To me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I’d add him if I knew I’d be using others in conjunction with him. He’s be an ideal spot starter. If the price is right, he’d be an ideal ‘depth’ add. Chances are his days as a full-time Major League starter are over.
Jason Marquis – Of our possible pieces of trash, Marquis is the most ‘sure thing’ out of all of them. He’s a guy who’ll thrive with a good defense behind him – which is something he really hasn’t had the luxury of having since his stint with the Cardinals. His LOB% is almost dead average. His BABIP is very low in terms of his career numbers, but consistent. It did spike the last couple of years so most of his statistical decline could probably be attributed to that, especially his smelly 2010. His BB/9 the last few years have been slightly below average and he doesn’t strike many guys out, but you have to love his 50.4% GB%. He’s completely average at giving up the long ball. He’s a below-average pitcher. Nothing more, nothing less. He’s good for a 1.0-1.5 WAR and that’s about it, which fits your #5 model starter fairly well. $5-6 million probably gets him signed.
Paul Maholm– I like Maholm A LOT in Fenway Park. And I mean a lot. For one, like some of the other guys on this list – he’s projectable. 70.4% LOB% and a slightly unlucky .310 BABIP. He’s not going to strike a ton of guys out, but he’s a groundball machine at 52.3%. He’s better at giving up HR’s than say – a guy like Gavin Floyd– and has a league-average walk rate. His ERA has been less than inspiring over the past few years, but he’s had a 3.98 FIP over the past four years, making him almost EXACTLY league average. He’s had the benefit of pitching in PNC Park to be sure, but has had to suffer with the Pirates’ not-so-spectacular gloves behind him. At age 30, there’s no real indication that he wouldn’t be able to keep up those numbers in Fenway, especially with the Red Sox gloves behind him. He’s posted 2 WAR+ in five of the last six seasons. Like Francis, he’s a guy who isn’t spectacular, but he’s effectively average and won’t be valued as such. I think he’d play well here.
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